TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Diamondbacksof Nationals, Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce1f…41a9backed Diamondbacks76c46,069$34,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,282.874858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals28c15,742$4,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,475.2369249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals17c15,092$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.852,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals24c14,842$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,623.871,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals4c12,382$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.731,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals14c10,803$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.149,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa889…4ca6backed Diamondbacks68c9,995$6,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde46…eba5backed Nationals32c9,995$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,198.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nationals33c7,381$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.8323752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Nationals20c6,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Diamondbacks67c5,538$3,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.61,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Diamondbacks76c4,579$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.11741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-40.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals14c3,758$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.1397950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Diamondbacks68c3,333$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.5498149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nationals33c3,056$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.5939041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Nationals20c2,723$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.3812624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nationals32c2,050$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6565648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals15c1,961$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Nationals34c1,783$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Nationals32c1,771$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7276456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Nationals12c1,678$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Nationals33c1,367$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.4214951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa329…26a2backed Nationals34c1,059$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3606038.3%23 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals32c1,016$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3251,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Diamondbacks68c999.99$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32033349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Nationals2c950$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Nationals31c849.93$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.4820450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals11c818.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.921,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Nationals4c802.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.685053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…7d12backed Nationals32c781.25$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018247.8%87 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals17c717.65$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12239436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals20c658.1$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Nationals12c650$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7812314.6%18 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Nationals4c607.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.572488.9%22 W · 226 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Diamondbacks67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16514150.4%71 W · 70 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Nationals16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Diamondbacks67c499.98$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9971751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed Nationals25c484.85$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12019233.3%64 W · 128 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Diamondbacks67c471.08$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.555,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Nationals5c470$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.74754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Nationals11c464.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x399d…01dabacked Diamondbacks67c390.91$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12911757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Nationals20c365.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.152542.5%223 W · 302 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks67c350.72$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.732,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Nationals18c350$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.59550.5%48 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Nationals12c349.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Nationals13c317.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Nationals32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Diamondbacks68c308.82$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8215949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Diamondbacks69c307.25$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Nationals33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10268656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked Nationals32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Nationals8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Nationals30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9025835.3%91 W · 167 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Nationals10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals31c215.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Diamondbacks69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Diamondbacks67c199.98$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9988549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals13c180.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa827…5efbbacked Nationals32c170.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Nationals12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals14c163.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.324,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ff…11c7backed Nationals32c159.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Nationals12c155$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8843250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Nationals33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010552.4%55 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d50…40acbacked Nationals32c147.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Nationals33c147$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9368769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc390…1a4ebacked Nationals33c145.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Diamondbacks69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.932,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe128…243fbacked Nationals12c143.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175339.6%21 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa55b…d5ccbacked Nationals14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c1…6428backed Nationals33c142.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfc…b032backed Diamondbacks68c141$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.122958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56b5…b16fbacked Nationals33c140.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8254…d431backed Diamondbacks67c111.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.944100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Nationals28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0b…44fdbacked Nationals20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Diamondbacks67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3365549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Nationals33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3324250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9941649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…540ebacked Diamondbacks68c97.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.571957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7c…920ebacked Nationals33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019053.2%101 W · 89 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b3…9b71backed Diamondbacks68c79.32$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Diamondbacks76c75.62$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8280680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x4eed…1675backed Diamondbacks67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.633650%18 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals32c74.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6685047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9d…28d7backed Diamondbacks69c74.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dbb…f8abbacked Nationals32c73.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…d4aabacked Diamondbacks69c73.41$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4e…c162backed Diamondbacks69c73.28$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.72580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5632…433bbacked Diamondbacks69c72.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0624…017dbacked Diamondbacks69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4626651.1%136 W · 130 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d12…db9bbacked Diamondbacks69c72.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Nationals19c71.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.478543.5%37 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x525b…3e1fbacked Diamondbacks69c71.17$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0765…e6e5backed Diamondbacks69c70.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc811…a5b9backed Nationals21c69.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158439.3%33 W · 51 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa8…a9cabacked Diamondbacks69c69.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.514100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+85.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b2f…433fbacked Diamondbacks69c68.93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+109.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.