TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Mariners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$392,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$412,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce1f…41a9backed Nationals49c57,321$28,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,179.654858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners43c28,413$12,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,136.871,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Nationals59c27,345$16,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,221.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners43c26,252$11,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,415.4186751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Nationals34c22,443$7,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,791.536556.9%37 W · 28 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Mariners53c20,696$10,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,968.9227948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals47c15,958$7,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,387.2369249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Nationals47c14,500$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,68524553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Mariners71c13,061$9,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,22821356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Nationals34c11,296$3,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,497.056645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…27c9backed Mariners56c11,257$6,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,291.615545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mariners48c11,117$5,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,320.689,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Mariners51c9,356$4,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.4714048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Nationals64c9,221$5,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.871741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-40.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mariners35c5,686$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.4917136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef57…90c1backed Nationals53c4,909$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.372544%11 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners51c4,431$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.831,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners48c4,317$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.021,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners51c4,128$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.552,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals49c4,076$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.4798149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mariners50c3,932$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.11,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90d…0b4dbacked Mariners52c3,654$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.332231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Mariners52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Nationals75c3,464$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.11825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Mariners74c3,291$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.989862.2%61 W · 37 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Mariners52c3,193$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.7915553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Mariners33c3,191$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.9597950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a9…132fbacked Mariners63c3,186$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e2…322bbacked Mariners52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.992133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c40…583bbacked Nationals48c2,987$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.241844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Mariners50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25023752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Mariners51c2,498$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.849749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Mariners39c2,280$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.1640547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Nationals53c2,017$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.017651.3%39 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x834b…1f64backed Mariners51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69d4…6775backed Mariners24c1,828$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.394544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Mariners19c1,815$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.771442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b08…b33bbacked Nationals49c1,800$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92bc…5f95backed Nationals49c1,800$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Mariners35c1,660$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58026847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Mariners34c1,660$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.3179740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c6…696fbacked Mariners51c1,639$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Nationals61c1,628$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.997451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a0…1b3dbacked Nationals45c1,574$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.972941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals47c1,547$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.181,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked Nationals53c1,543$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.913630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals35c1,430$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.042,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Mariners3c1,218$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.42488.9%22 W · 226 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2377…5547backed Nationals50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Mariners53c1,155$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.695850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mariners50c1,115$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.1541643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Nationals79c1,095$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2304564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mariners47c1,048$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4363942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Mariners50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…01dabacked Mariners49c975.32$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.0311757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Mariners32c936$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.2617927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Nationals27c926.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.752330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Nationals49c926.53$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.5318349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Mariners49c898.54$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.2933349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516a…84f6backed Mariners57c873.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.746435.9%23 W · 41 L-11.6wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5eeb…8253backed Mariners50c850$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Nationals67c815.04$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.7324751%126 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b06…ace9backed Nationals50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4a…2a73backed Mariners50c750$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf366…bd1ebacked Nationals77c653.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.475666.1%37 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Mariners24c621.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa329…26a2backed Mariners53c603.77$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206038.3%23 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cce…5a68backed Nationals49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3061361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Nationals79c530$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.315543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Mariners55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27542452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Mariners53c491.43$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Nationals46c453.77$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.0420450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Mariners67c449.06$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020367%136 W · 67 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals48c446$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8885047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Nationals52c440$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ff…84babacked Nationals40c416.2$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.27951.9%41 W · 38 L+9.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdda3…b20cbacked Nationals77c403.41$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7718449.5%91 W · 93 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…097ebacked Mariners50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61bb…e54bbacked Nationals73c399.55$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.883554.3%19 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Mariners51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Mariners53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020150.2%101 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Mariners54c373.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mariners54c356.11$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6454048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Nationals37c350$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9838741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e1…c9eabacked Nationals77c346.59$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Mariners48c339.98$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.737437.8%28 W · 46 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x80f8…6713backed Mariners60c333.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004261.9%26 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Nationals77c332.34$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6614951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Nationals49c323.89$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8930928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Mariners51c315.29$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.313353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals67c308.96$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9668656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Mariners50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15051151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Mariners50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de4…aa6dbacked Mariners51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-73.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5205…492dbacked Mariners51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Mariners51c299.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15313555.6%75 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Nationals46c298.2$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.758530.6%26 W · 59 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a55…71bcbacked Nationals44c297.22$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Mariners39c282.71$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1643250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.