TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf366…bd1e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
0

Best Category: MLB, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 51.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT5666.1%37 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Angels vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+50%+$50
Rangers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$50.48
Astros vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$100.52
Brewers vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$218
Reds vs. Metsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$132.95
Brewers vs. Dodgersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$97.89
Tigers vs. Rangersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$858Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$858.03
Padres vs. Nationalsbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Red Sox vs. Cubsbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$136.4
MLB All-Star Gamebacked National League · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$883Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+51.9%+$458.26
Guardians vs. White Soxbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+79.7%+$398.74
Nationals vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$285.78
Mariners vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$505
Rockies vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$17.14
Mets vs. Royalsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+81.9%+$475.04
Rockies vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+37.4%+$187.78
Mariners vs. Tigersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+100%+$50
Mets vs. Royalsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+81.6%+$275.7
Phillies vs. Padresbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$313
Rockies vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$167
Braves vs. Athleticsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Mets vs. Oriolesbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+95.4%+$100.14
Marlins vs. Redsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$55.24
Cardinals vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
Royals vs. Diamondbacksbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+76.4%+$38.2
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$14.12
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+178.5%+$44.62
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$114
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Hawks vs. Heatbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$97.85
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.18
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$798Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$798
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$354.55
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$733Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+60.6%+$444.32
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+30.4%+$182.64
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.95
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$197.57
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$520
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.09
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+109.5%+$383.17
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+268.9%+$332.68
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$103
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$150.88
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$1,127.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.