TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Padres vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Padresof Padres, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,549 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65e4…a3bdbacked Nationals42c77,351$32,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,589.2410844.4%48 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Padres58c75,000$43,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,50060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals42c29,111$12,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,226.11,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals49c9,380$4,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,584.541,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Padres58c6,930$4,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910.613065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dae…f8b2backed Nationals48c4,793$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30013352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Padres57c4,700$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0211,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres57c4,558$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9382,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Padres58c4,327$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.447455.4%41 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Padres46c4,178$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.0333554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals15c4,002$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Padres57c3,800$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,63449250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1f…dfe2backed Nationals60c3,324$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals16c2,966$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.666,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Padres55c2,744$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.9324154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals43c2,640$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.381,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Padres58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.2166645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Padres60c2,411$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.431346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals19c2,399$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.872,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Nationals9c2,383$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4460249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals43c2,305$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.1598149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Padres57c2,226$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.0395850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Nationals55c2,205$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.6841747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Nationals18c2,178$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.5243946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Nationals40c2,162$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.7211555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Padres40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9915642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Padres68c1,853$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Padres58c1,530$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.397950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals43c1,344$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.131,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Padres70c1,250$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.613359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6f…482cbacked Padres57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4306553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Padres72c989.47$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4713151.9%68 W · 63 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Nationals29c973.51$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Padres57c900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38738249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Padres58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.079759.8%58 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc4…f94fbacked Nationals60c851.67$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5113450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Nationals42c800.36$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.1533852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals43c677$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.111,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Padres45c529.7$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.3432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae0e…6527backed Padres58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe4f…5241backed Padres70c472.1$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.33944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba41…095cbacked Padres58c457.9$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.323852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Padres44c455.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.791,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nationals55c444.44$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.4454941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b8…8590backed Padres45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.443743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Padres57c436.97$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.97847.4%37 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x282c…784bbacked Nationals21c416.55$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.217733.8%26 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Padres57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17251151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals7c300.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0593240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals42c299.97$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.991,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nationals39c291.11$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5350852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c53…a22abacked Padres58c275.86$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.861040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b8…5caebacked Nationals43c256$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Padres59c252.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8716157.1%92 W · 69 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6d…9ec9backed Padres58c226$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…15edbacked Nationals43c219$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a9…926dbacked Nationals43c218$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Padres61c217.61$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba84…3dc5backed Padres58c205$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…0bccbacked Nationals43c204$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0667…42e1backed Nationals47c201.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.213145.8%60 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals42c200.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.011,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Padres58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Padres58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8415644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Padres58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8480955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Padres58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres58c196$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.322,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32e4…d0ecbacked Padres58c188$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Padres57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4456351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaecf…e3dcbacked Nationals43c175$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.25650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf366…bd1ebacked Padres58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.415666.1%37 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x514b…ad6abacked Padres58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.417846.2%36 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Padres58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4131356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…a388backed Padres58c159$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…57ebbacked Nationals43c153$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc274…8549backed Padres58c149$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Nationals53c147$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9412045.8%55 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Nationals43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.234051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Nationals43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Nationals37c129.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4838743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1306…3047backed Padres58c123$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Padres62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Padres56c107.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7453448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Padres58c103.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6711748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa21d…a769backed Padres58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.452944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Padres58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf9…88febacked Padres58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals40c99.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9931244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Padres57c88.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.871,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed Padres58c77.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5924051.7%124 W · 116 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8554…c28dbacked Padres58c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Padres76c72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2965549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Nationals41c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9313843.5%60 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Padres58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9730242.4%128 W · 174 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Nationals43c67.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.995352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Padres57c65.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.255,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae90…c05fbacked Nationals47c55.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.384654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.