NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf92781624dd615d7ab3f9ed3590be14813bea6ca67f581e575d5ec36825d5276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Hawks | 39c | 23,425$9,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,194.09 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Heat | 60c | 19,479$11,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,737.65 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hawks | 39c | 10,828$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,553.41 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Heat | 64c | 6,284$3,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Heat | 60c | 4,338$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Heat | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Heat | 58c | 3,889$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.07 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat | 62c | 3,699$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.38 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Hawks | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Heat | 61c | 2,342$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.4 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked Hawks | 9c | 1,893$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Heat | 1c | 1,766$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 60c | 1,257$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.31 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…5078backed Hawks | 57c | 1,062$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.76 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Hawks | 38c | 800$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Heat | 5c | 702$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Hawks | 41c | 508.03$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.46 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Heat | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Heat | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Heat | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Heat | 51c | 463$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.97 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Hawks | 65c | 439.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Hawks | 42c | 310.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Heat | 51c | 294.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Heat | 33c | 284.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Hawks | 23c | 272.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.1 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Heat | 61c | 257$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Hawks | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Heat | 66c | 241.95$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.47 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Hawks | 54c | 236$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Hawks | 40c | 198.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Hawks | 40c | 167.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…bd1ebacked Hawks | 41c | 165.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Heat | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Heat | 61c | 149.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…4c9fbacked Heat | 67c | 148.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hawks | 40c | 138.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Heat | 58c | 138.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Heat | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Heat | 57c | 132.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Heat | 60c | 129.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Hawks | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Hawks | 44c | 119.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Hawks | 45c | 117.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 381 | 32.8%125 W · 256 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…7ad7backed Heat | 10c | 105.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…2758backed Heat | 59c | 102.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Hawks | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Hawks | 39c | 96.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Heat | 66c | 88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…51c6backed Heat | 43c | 66.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…a384backed Heat | 70c | 65.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Heat | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Heat | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Hawks | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…4979backed Heat | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…06a8backed Hawks | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Hawks | 32c | 49.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…8e5abacked Heat | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Hawks | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Hawks | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Hawks | 40c | 44.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Hawks | 45c | 40.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…c3c9backed Heat | 59c | 33.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…f363backed Hawks | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Hawks | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…7fd3backed Heat | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…66a7backed Heat | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…80a4backed Hawks | 47c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…ed6fbacked Heat | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Heat | 55c | 23.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Heat | 66c | 22.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa0…aa62backed Heat | 57c | 22.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca11…1167backed Heat | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…db4cbacked Heat | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Heat | 63c | 20.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…8a5ebacked Heat | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Heat | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…9c5ebacked Heat | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…db19backed Heat | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…a3cabacked Heat | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.