Earnings · resolved market
Will Dell say "China" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf91e9fc1fd6926bb76093790d9bcf777830b3a59e6e429fb3f410cdff2056fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…aec3backed Yes | 12c | 10,600$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…91fabacked Yes | 3c | 860$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 70c | 355$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 19c | 251.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 66c | 219$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e3…3605backed Yes | 28c | 211.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 31c | 209.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked No | 70c | 199.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 67c | 174$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…3040backed No | 76c | 157.53$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 69c | 150.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 47c | 127.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed No | 70c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 28c | 100.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…1015backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 30c | 99.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…0bc3backed No | 64c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…6ff6backed Yes | 44c | 91.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 28c | 90.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 32c | 86.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 27c | 75.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…4d1fbacked Yes | 34c | 72.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…8e17backed Yes | 26c | 67.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed No | 65c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…87bcbacked Yes | 29c | 65.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 61.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…6db4backed Yes | 29c | 59.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 38c | 51.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…2e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 23c | 47.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 46.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dell say "China" during earnings call?this page
- Will Dell say "AI Factory" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Dell say "Confidence" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "Dell Pro Max" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "Dividend" 3+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "EPS Growth" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Dell say "New Product" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "Nvidia" 5+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "PowerEdge / Power Edge" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "RTX Pro 6000" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "Windows 10" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dell say "Zoho" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.