Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bd72d9ab07a7f368a80b7a1a2a01f150f8869085554bad06559f396db7875b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,309,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,065,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,309,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 2c | 119,472$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 117,100$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.3 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…5fb5backed Yes | 2c | 109,438$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…6458backed Yes | 1c | 104,900$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed Yes | 1c | 103,230$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 2c | 96,612$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.85 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 64,427$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.37 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 2c | 62,711$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…370bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,764$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed Yes | 2c | 47,612$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…5fc9backed Yes | 1c | 44,973$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 4c | 42,457$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 1c | 39,367$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.06 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…8856backed Yes | 1c | 37,978$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 2c | 34,564$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 30,010$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.62 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…2128backed Yes | 1c | 28,925$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 0c | 26,593$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 1c | 25,257$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 2c | 24,086$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…75a2backed Yes | 4c | 23,314$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,233$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d5…c507backed Yes | 2c | 21,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…d101backed Yes | 1c | 20,863$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…7182backed Yes | 2c | 20,378$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce1…2161backed Yes | 1c | 18,402$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…229abacked Yes | 1c | 17,585$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…d0b7backed Yes | 6c | 17,031$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 15,805$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 1c | 14,857$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 2c | 14,800$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…509bbacked Yes | 2c | 14,296$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 1c | 10,844$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…3e79backed Yes | 5c | 10,180$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae9…8148backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,060$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…5696backed Yes | 2c | 8,971$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…14e8backed Yes | 1c | 8,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 2c | 8,424$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…7f92backed Yes | 5c | 8,058$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 4c | 8,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…d9c1backed Yes | 3c | 7,534$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 1c | 7,499$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 3c | 7,181$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Yes | 2c | 6,596$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 7c | 6,070$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…37d8backed Yes | 3c | 6,066$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 5c | 5,575$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 1c | 5,347$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…351bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,129$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…f104backed Yes | 1c | 4,651$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 2c | 4,366$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…33afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,298$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…6e80backed Yes | 3c | 4,075$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe855…c225backed Yes | 2c | 3,742$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…99f5backed Yes | 1c | 3,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,644$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…775fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,640$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Yes | 1c | 3,572$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 3c | 3,490$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…4741backed Yes | 1c | 3,236$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…c3d5backed Yes | 2c | 3,126$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…bc7abacked Yes | 3c | 3,114$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 3c | 3,029$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 2,753$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…4df2backed Yes | 9c | 2,495$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Yes | 2c | 2,335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…1010backed Yes | 2c | 2,190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 2,135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…b2a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 1c | 1,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 5c | 1,872$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,780$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…17a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,759$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 3c | 1,636$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,529$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 2c | 1,483$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…1ad2backed Yes | 1c | 1,438$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…940bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,308$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,284$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 6c | 1,260$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…ce5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 7c | 1,096$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…6315backed Yes | 1c | 1,088$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…88bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,070$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…879ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,039$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d6d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,034$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…a266backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 897$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.