AI · resolved market
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51835f7c52476ef253e31f465a04deeffb10a7a61c9e2e9bd5ec94a6b8d452a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 13,801$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.22 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked No | 33c | 6,865$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 5,500$4,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,302.97 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 2c | 4,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…be5dbacked No | 2c | 4,571$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes | 14c | 4,215$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…adaebacked No | 16c | 4,057$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 69c | 3,812$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.37 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked Yes | 15c | 3,428$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 74c | 2,902$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.54 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 13c | 2,648$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.16 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 8c | 2,079$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…42d4backed No | 24c | 2,031$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 64c | 1,925$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,795$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.18 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 9c | 1,763$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 66c | 1,597$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.54 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 54c | 1,398$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…627fbacked No | 6c | 1,232$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a6…3780backed No | 21c | 1,196$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 1,134$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.46 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked No | 21c | 907.88$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 74c | 825.46$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.58 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed Yes | 13c | 805.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 19c | 754.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.24 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 70c | 722.26$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.12 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked Yes | 68c | 699.77$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 24c | 694.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 78c | 671.1$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 666$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 31c | 639.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.65 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 38c | 628.42$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.18 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…32c3backed Yes | 17c | 589.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…0ee4backed Yes | 71c | 570.47$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 52c | 536.61$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.08 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 36c | 525.14$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 25c | 522.18$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 66c | 516.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No | 21c | 474.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed No | 22c | 447.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 67c | 418.16$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 403$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 18c | 399.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…0a14backed Yes | 79c | 386.3$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed No | 58c | 353.55$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…ccfebacked Yes | 79c | 347.26$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 70c | 333.54$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…233bbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…3adfbacked Yes | 22c | 267.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…ffd3backed Yes | 42c | 264.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…d1bdbacked Yes | 36c | 253.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…09a8backed No | 10c | 245.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed No | 37c | 239.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 76c | 232.05$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…65b2backed No | 40c | 225.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c665backed No | 29c | 224.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 22c | 211.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 22c | 209$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5200backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…7f12backed Yes | 78c | 179.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes | 13c | 169.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 162.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…b102backed Yes | 74c | 154.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 40c | 154$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…553cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 137.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 58c | 130$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…b4abbacked Yes | 16c | 129.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 43c | 128.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…b1dbbacked Yes | 17c | 123.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…b00ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…f9e0backed Yes | 77c | 108.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x618b…c3dabacked Yes | 14c | 108.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 16c | 100.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed No | 43c | 80.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 76.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…e391backed Yes | 19c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +418.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 18c | 67.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…665dbacked No | 21c | 65.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 30c | 62.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Yes | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 69c | 58.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…6810backed Yes | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 59c | 53.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed No | 32c | 46.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…4691backed No | 28c | 46.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c5…a5cabacked No | 38c | 40.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…2702backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?this page
- Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.