AI · resolved market
Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf218087dacf36884f626e0565147d380a6b8c2ddaa3e9fa0c633826bc58085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 20c | 8,737$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.19 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 19c | 5,670$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked Yes | 78c | 3,290$2,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 2,396$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked No | 5c | 2,124$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,918$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 9c | 1,637$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…d105backed No | 22c | 1,249$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…ee3fbacked No | 2c | 1,195$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 21c | 1,131$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed No | 2c | 855.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d7…7fc4backed No | 3c | 655.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…837ebacked Yes | 80c | 500.91$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5200backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…8404backed Yes | 77c | 428.92$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 410$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 8c | 391.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 18c | 353.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…de68backed Yes | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa930…3f84backed Yes | 77c | 152.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 112.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 50c | 39.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31?this page
- Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.