Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00-1.04ºC in June 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3327cf1fb91270b73f2deaf4313ffc06649911edd3cfd6d38055e1e03cd243e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 40c | 12,853$5,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,731.6 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 36c | 9,364$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 43c | 4,442$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 51c | 4,422$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 41c | 2,861$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 35c | 2,191$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.78 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 1,987$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 53c | 1,293$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.23 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 56c | 1,074$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 36c | 967.35$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.72 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…d9aabacked Yes | 67c | 958.99$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 55c | 879.99$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed No | 5c | 771.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 43c | 756.3$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 41c | 742.57$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.94 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 51c | 631.86$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.94 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 22c | 625.05$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 52c | 346.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 14c | 309.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.78 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 250.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 64c | 240.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 21c | 225.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 57c | 215.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…618fbacked No | 40c | 209.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 174.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 71c | 153.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 128.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 51c | 101.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 58c | 98.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 50c | 91.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 60c | 81.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 77.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 58c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 63.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…3381backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17c…277bbacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…43f9backed Yes | 51c | 38.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 44c | 24.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…84a5backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00-1.04ºC in June 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.95ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.14ºC in June 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.