Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in June 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0da8e7a1858abd18928c0c547a88229fdd36c2693e249c4e25bb96c6b4f6f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 49c | 9,154$4,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,490.87 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 42c | 6,977$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,922.81 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 60c | 3,179$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 57c | 2,313$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 28c | 1,959$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,641$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 42c | 1,607$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 34c | 1,542$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.16 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 1c | 1,404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 1,198$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 1,159$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 16c | 900$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 4c | 859.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 763.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 657.44$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 55c | 644.5$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 5c | 487.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 482.4$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 50c | 447.32$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.51 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 72c | 416.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…3381backed Yes | 12c | 389.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 46c | 362.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 49c | 306.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 55c | 275$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 56c | 241.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 38c | 199$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9b3dbacked Yes | 6c | 189.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 57c | 176.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 62c | 164$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 46c | 151.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 57c | 106.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 38c | 86.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 54c | 81.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 14c | 80.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 56c | 62.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in June 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00-1.04ºC in June 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.95ºC in June 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.14ºC in June 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.