World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7928631e9cb628b8a2618760271da26848636d858cdea9731b98163a7bc88b02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 23c | 12,817$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 65c | 8,000$5,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,784.25 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked No | 5c | 5,613$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 36c | 5,000$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 70c | 4,535$3,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.98 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 64c | 4,200$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.32 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 76c | 3,521$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.61 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 71c | 3,312$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.31 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed No | 31c | 2,172$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 34c | 1,516$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.62 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,500$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.05 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 34c | 1,300$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…3aabbacked No | 37c | 1,132$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 36c | 852.67$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.84 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…ca30backed Yes | 63c | 761.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 37c | 718.95$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.39 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd601…21c1backed No | 29c | 465.21$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 438.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed No | 29c | 431$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 405.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 404.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 35c | 400$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2641backed No | 36c | 347.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 32c | 306.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…a0a9backed No | 34c | 297.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 39c | 256.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 35c | 241.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c12…3a72backed No | 8c | 213.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…4be8backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…9630backed Yes | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 27c | 184.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 62c | 184.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 175.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…b203backed No | 46c | 174.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 157.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 156$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…42d7backed Yes | 71c | 141.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 23c | 137.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 18c | 133.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…07b6backed No | 26c | 133.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…9bdbbacked No | 22c | 114.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 69c | 111.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 79c | 109.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 37c | 109$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 68c | 92.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…ea3fbacked No | 35c | 88.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 88.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…367abacked No | 32c | 76.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8022…da52backed No | 37c | 67.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2f62backed No | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 33c | 64.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…be97backed No | 32c | 63.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 66c | 60.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…36d5backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 34c | 59.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…c84dbacked Yes | 63c | 57.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…1b66backed No | 34c | 56.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…c7c4backed No | 38c | 52.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed No | 32c | 46.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 62c | 40.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 75c | 35.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 35c | 35.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…7f64backed Yes | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 37c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 66c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 66c | 22.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b76…c234backed Yes | 75c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 45% and 46%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 47% and 48%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 49%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 49% and 50%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 45%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.