Weather · resolved market
2025 September second hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9610b1bcc593ec295bd67f261153bbf7b2d4e1f57e34d169e0c59d261cf382da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 3c | 34,734$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.16 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 29c | 29,403$8,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,820.69 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 32c | 29,130$9,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,718.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 33c | 17,381$5,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,701.99 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 12c | 7,769$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,826.01 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 40c | 5,026$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,015.86 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 14c | 4,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d7bcbacked No | 49c | 3,964$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 20c | 3,681$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.13 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 11c | 3,680$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,271.98 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 40c | 3,485$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 20c | 3,334$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 17c | 3,000$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 59c | 2,089$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 31c | 1,111$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.38 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…37fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,034$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,545%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 987.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 14c | 942.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 827.19$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.03 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 58c | 819.76$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.85 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 17c | 693.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.66 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 601.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 31c | 573.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.77 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…d1a3backed No | 26c | 557.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fb…9cf8backed No | 73c | 547.88$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 49c | 516.67$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.77 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…aa64backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 21c | 481$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 44c | 441$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 79c | 403.06$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 3c | 389.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 43c | 368.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 11c | 366.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 353.38$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 77c | 350.2$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 56c | 323.04$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 315$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.17 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 53c | 300$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.9 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 6c | 281.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 37c | 271.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed Yes | 76c | 262.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +448.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…7aaabacked Yes | 51c | 231.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 64c | 227.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…c2b2backed Yes | 14c | 210.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +340.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…49d2backed Yes | 12c | 204.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…3a9abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…1952backed Yes | 65c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 8c | 131.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…31b0backed Yes | 79c | 126.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…46a6backed No | 25c | 125.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…106bbacked Yes | 65c | 124.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 57c | 119.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 64c | 109.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…9621backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked No | 20c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 53c | 88.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 45c | 78.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 30c | 66.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 78c | 56.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 25c | 55.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed Yes | 76c | 52.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…038cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 60c | 49.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 60c | 48.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Yes | 50c | 47.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…db36backed Yes | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 79c | 38.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed No | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…dc7abacked Yes | 58c | 34.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…4397backed Yes | 72c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…5d4fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 75c | 29.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…f30abacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…1d6fbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…327abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…7948backed Yes | 74c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Yes | 66c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2025 September second hottest on record?this page
- 2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record?No won
- 2025 September hottest on record?No won
- 2025 September third hottest on record?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.