TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6879…db36

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: College Football, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 56 out of 100; worst NFL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+58.7%+$11.47
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$17.98
Kings vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$6.82
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.14
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.98
Pelicans vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Wizards vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Nets vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.11
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.02
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.89
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-55.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Volkov vs. Almeidabacked Almeida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.43
Barnett vs. Abdelwahabbacked Barnett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.71
Allen vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Malott vs. Hollandbacked Malott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+66.4%+$42.77
Vera vs. Zahabibacked Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.99
Fiorot vs. Jasudaviciusbacked Fiorot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
All 6 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST5100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Oregon (-9.5)backed Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+29.9%+$9.35
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Techbacked Western Kentucky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$28.78
Tennessee vs. Alabamabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Spread: Notre Dame (-10.5)backed USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Louisville vs. Miamibacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.08
All 5 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$21.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.82
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+135.6%+$71.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.99
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+85.3%+$25.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$48.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$19.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$71.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.