TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,198,125
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,218,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,198,125 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 535 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Mavericks60c539,261$322,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322,923.523534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Spurs40c434,952$173,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260,970.9215443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Spurs43c137,754$59,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,901.328744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Mavericks61c122,951$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,0002665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Spurs40c117,944$47,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,461.7947848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mavericks41c116,789$48,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,143.6585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mavericks27c104,216$28,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,050.021,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Spurs40c84,691$33,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,725.792,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Mavericks9c81,808$7,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,305.398333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs43c60,000$25,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,201.5138248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b1…0f83backed Mavericks56c44,529$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Mavericks28c44,262$12,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,406.9141848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks1c41,471$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.91,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Mavericks52c34,005$17,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,537.4636148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Mavericks59c32,108$18,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,964.4747144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Mavericks59c25,000$14,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,8501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Spurs41c24,662$10,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,646.071729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs41c24,400$10,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,395.951,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Mavericks29c22,011$6,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,464.8347448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Mavericks56c19,643$11,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,004.82642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Spurs40c18,871$7,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,322.416253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Spurs43c17,667$7,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,070.185433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Mavericks60c16,667$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff6…a199backed Spurs68c14,742$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,742.431353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Mavericks59c14,603$8,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,562.0871052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Mavericks61c14,000$8,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,54011535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Mavericks60c13,369$8,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,012.725942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Spurs39c13,000$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9304766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Mavericks31c12,952$4,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,015.2110530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Mavericks38c12,430$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,774.9119249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Spurs39c11,111$4,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,777.7115952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Spurs42c10,000$4,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,824.9916942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Spurs42c9,965$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,779.9459653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Spurs42c9,500$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,509.9434645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Mavericks60c9,474$5,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,684.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-56.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Mavericks60c8,477$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1008246.3%38 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x630c…3801backed Mavericks36c8,211$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.951942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mavericks59c8,182$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,842.3320253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Mavericks46c7,999$3,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.398036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Spurs41c7,500$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,424.996152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x871f…7b97backed Spurs44c7,275$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Spurs42c5,808$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,395.512160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Mavericks57c5,754$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.5544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Mavericks57c5,702$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.183237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Mavericks60c5,444$3,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,266.44045%18 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5c…43b0backed Mavericks56c5,360$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Spurs40c5,040$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,02427051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe945…a5cbbacked Mavericks60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Spurs42c4,750$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Mavericks58c4,653$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6996155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Spurs43c4,651$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.167142.3%30 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Spurs43c4,604$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.8510930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Spurs40c4,586$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.4430053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Mavericks1c4,555$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.238783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Spurs38c4,404$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.5312334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Spurs42c4,325$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,508.645250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c1…54b0backed Spurs58c4,277$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.734327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06d…dd3ebacked Mavericks59c4,237$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks36c4,001$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.373,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Spurs42c4,000$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Mavericks40c3,919$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.228043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Mavericks58c3,870$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.2922752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs40c3,854$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.1982442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Spurs60c3,814$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.097561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Mavericks27c3,758$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.093053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Spurs42c3,736$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.991872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x474b…a13cbacked Mavericks29c3,640$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.281233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Spurs39c3,509$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.044553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fac…3bbcbacked Mavericks56c3,215$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Mavericks1c3,204$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.515502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Mavericks21c3,152$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.9825836.8%95 W · 163 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Mavericks3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Mavericks44c3,000$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32545647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Mavericks57c3,000$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.541,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Mavericks51c2,965$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mavericks42c2,954$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.581,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Mavericks0c2,750$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe638…cd59backed Spurs44c2,730$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa455…4ebabacked Mavericks42c2,655$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Spurs43c2,576$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.822458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Spurs42c2,542$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.7485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Mavericks55c2,540$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40011135.1%39 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Mavericks30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec30…f1aabacked Spurs42c2,410$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.551241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Spurs42c2,381$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.9866250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.5834062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f89…d508backed Mavericks63c2,305$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.032142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks52c2,276$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.713,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Mavericks4c2,200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8817335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Mavericks1c2,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks36c2,026$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.971,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd7…51fcbacked Mavericks60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Mavericks60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mavericks33c2,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a5…fae0backed Spurs41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.993138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs40c1,863$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Spurs80c1,780$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.949573.7%70 W · 25 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x330b…e446backed Spurs43c1,759$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.7811146.8%52 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Spurs41c1,750$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.547748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.