Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on October 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a63413f046ab5149fe1b7c6525bc166a2db5345ee5a29f30dc778a3bb039f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,479$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 14c | 2,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…1a4cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,863$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 1,802$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,369$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,310$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.26 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 50c | 914.75$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 70c | 587.68$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 583.16$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed No | 61c | 579$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…d673backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 47c | 346.68$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 323$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 48c | 302$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…04a3backed Yes | 71c | 291.48$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 48c | 221.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 53c | 200.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 50c | 156.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…7c3abacked No | 66c | 121.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec36…78bbbacked No | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 46c | 108.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf1…ffb3backed No | 70c | 102.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 86.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 44c | 76.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 47c | 61.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…1056backed Yes | 48c | 58.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…d4b9backed No | 32c | 55.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…1acfbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…9d52backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 47c | 45.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…d8adbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…aca1backed Yes | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 38.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 50c | 31.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddda…0212backed Yes | 73c | 31.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f8…d007backed Yes | 47c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked No | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…3a5cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…db36backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on October 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or below on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.