Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e2186cd85cd627de95482e17dab2571515bce7dc31ad658472fd37828d2723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 44c | 948$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 52c | 870.8$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.81 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 623.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 9c | 600.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 474.72$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 67c | 429.03$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.71 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 40c | 302$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 52c | 236.4$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 49c | 236.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 48c | 188.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 59c | 167.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5062…365fbacked Yes | 35c | 165.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 27c | 145.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 39c | 140.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Yes | 41c | 139$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 128.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf1…ffb3backed No | 70c | 112.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked Yes | 35c | 104.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 48c | 96.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…1056backed Yes | 51c | 94.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…9d52backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 34c | 73.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 73c | 62.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 50.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138c…d2c7backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…8374backed Yes | 42c | 47.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…0997backed Yes | 51c | 38.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes | 35c | 30.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6551…9afcbacked Yes | 43c | 27.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or below on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.