Spread: Oregon (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c851927957e127483b017898e2aa87403f48748d6af6f54e17862fc1f5d3018

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Oregonof Oregon, USC
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,218,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,223,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,218,137 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2643…39aebacked Oregon	62c	1,015,143$633,855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381,288.14	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed USC	35c	344,489$120,571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120,570.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed USC	39c	248,928$96,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96,744.1	162	34%55 W · 107 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked USC	39c	187,491$73,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73,496.07	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed USC	38c	60,000$22,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,900	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked USC	39c	60,000$23,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,550	526	41.8%220 W · 306 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed USC	40c	42,500$17,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,000	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked USC	40c	30,128$12,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,049.88	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed USC	41c	16,998$6,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,893.14	648	41.2%267 W · 381 L	+12.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon	55c	13,101$7,237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,863.59	524	49.4%259 W · 265 L	-2.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed USC	45c	12,427$5,564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,564.42	95	40%38 W · 57 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked USC	40c	10,011$4,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,004.28	76	64.5%49 W · 27 L	+9.0wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed USC	40c	10,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-4.8wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed USC	45c	5,000$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,250	290	55.2%160 W · 130 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked USC	44c	4,142$1,823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,823.41	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed USC	50c	3,391$1,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,692.68	262	44.3%116 W · 146 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Oregon	56c	3,202$1,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,409.08	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed USC	43c	3,060$1,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,315.86	632	43.7%276 W · 356 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+138.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked USC	41c	3,000$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed USC	2c	2,993$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.86	86	29.1%25 W · 61 L	+15.2wins	+0.18per pick	11cpaid	+361.6%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed USC	40c	2,500$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Oregon	53c	2,500$1,322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,178	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Oregon	55c	2,200$1,210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$990	157	51%80 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Oregon	59c	2,016$1,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$816.7	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+7.6wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+600.4%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Oregon	55c	1,915$1,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$862	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked USC	1c	1,685$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+5.6wins	+0.21per pick	2cpaid	+841.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed USC	45c	1,650$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.57	213	48.8%104 W · 109 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed USC	40c	1,542$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.2	862	43.7%377 W · 485 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oregon	52c	978.57$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.07	588	50.2%295 W · 293 L	+23.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Oregon	54c	800$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed USC	41c	800$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Oregon	56c	794.64$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.64	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed USC	40c	619.7$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.13	542	43.2%234 W · 308 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Oregon	55c	570.38$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.66	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed USC	53c	560.41$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.66	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8b…1614backed Oregon	63c	412.97$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.98	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed USC	47c	397$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.59	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+5.3wins	+0.19per pick	49cpaid	+85.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Oregon	51c	392.15$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.2	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cea…2d58backed Oregon	51c	380$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.2	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed USC	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	104	45.2%47 W · 57 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed USC	47c	279.07$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.69	1,090	41.7%455 W · 635 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed USC	46c	255.16$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.67	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed USC	45c	249.84$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.43	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Oregon	49c	234.22$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.45	118	51.7%61 W · 57 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon	55c	230$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.5	568	44.5%253 W · 315 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed USC	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	302	53%160 W · 142 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed USC	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	134	32.8%44 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed Oregon	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Oregon	54c	183$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.18	659	45.2%298 W · 361 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c56…c18dbacked Oregon	47c	166.47$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.23	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed USC	38c	156.82$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Oregon	53c	156.64$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.73	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed USC	58c	150$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	305	48.9%149 W · 156 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd923…f400backed Oregon	55c	150$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Oregon	49c	130$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.3	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Oregon	49c	127.44$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.55	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+21.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc26…6cd5backed USC	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-63%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Oregon	59c	113$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.98	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed Oregon	62c	106.53$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.53	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Oregon	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	127	55.9%71 W · 56 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc11d…421bbacked Oregon	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Oregon	56c	86$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.84	76	60.5%46 W · 30 L	+6.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8163backed USC	45c	80$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a35…5c9ebacked USC	57c	80$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked USC	41c	80$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	258	19.8%51 W · 207 L	-10.0wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Oregon	55c	78.14$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.83	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed USC	42c	71.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	269	40.5%109 W · 160 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Oregon	51c	70$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.3	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Oregon	53c	62.13$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.2	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a3…102cbacked Oregon	61c	59.98$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.1	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked USC	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	571	44.7%255 W · 316 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Oregon	54c	48.15$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.15	113	54.9%62 W · 51 L	+7.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6879…db36backed Oregon	77c	40.59$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.35	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c1…416abacked Oregon	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	100	59%59 W · 41 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcda0…6d11backed USC	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9efd…30babacked Oregon	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f38…36c1backed Oregon	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaea…ed4abacked Oregon	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc860…6b5cbacked Oregon	62c	30.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Oregon	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x398a…95b7backed USC	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d7…95d4backed Oregon	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2a…d4dbbacked USC	49c	22.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Oregon	60c	19.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Oregon (-9.5)this page
O/U 59.5Over won
Spread: Oregon (-10.5)Oregon won
USC vs. OregonOregon won
USC vs. Oregon: 1H MoneylineOregon won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Oregon (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event