College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2956b3c3931e267b50f9f4e7974f4bda49c219f22391645fafb39d5540a13c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, USC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed USC | 50c | 15,534$7,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,767.16 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9028backed USC | 52c | 7,627$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Oregon | 50c | 6,060$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,030 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked USC | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon | 48c | 5,669$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.26 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed USC | 51c | 5,500$2,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,805 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Oregon | 49c | 5,139$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.78 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Oregon | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Oregon | 50c | 3,631$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.43 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Oregon | 51c | 3,508$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.73 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed USC | 49c | 3,330$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…aff8backed Oregon | 59c | 2,473$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Oregon | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Oregon | 49c | 1,265$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.63 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Oregon | 50c | 1,102$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Oregon | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Oregon | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Oregon | 50c | 999.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.75 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked USC | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon | 49c | 844$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.7 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Oregon | 49c | 554.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.04 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Oregon | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon | 49c | 260$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed USC | 52c | 250$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed USC | 51c | 225.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed USC | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Oregon | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Oregon | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…6788backed USC | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed USC | 51c | 159$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed USC | 52c | 123.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Oregon | 48c | 120.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Oregon | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…2008backed USC | 54c | 94.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Oregon | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Oregon | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked USC | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Oregon | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed Oregon | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon | 48c | 53.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed USC | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Oregon | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Oregon | 47c | 40.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed USC | 53c | 40.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked USC | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…947ebacked USC | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed USC | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed USC | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Oregon | 50c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oregon | 49c | 20.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-10.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Over won
- Spread: Oregon (-9.5)Oregon won
- USC vs. OregonOregon won
- USC vs. Oregon: 1H MoneylineOregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.