TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Pelicans, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,317,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,324,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,317,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5afb…4511backed Grizzlies63c826,043$518,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307,216.315540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Pelicans37c260,000$96,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,20047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Pelicans37c110,555$40,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,905.358843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Pelicans38c80,431$30,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,563.313348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Pelicans37c50,000$18,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,50014856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pelicans37c49,117$18,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,173.447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Pelicans38c45,080$17,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,130.47939.2%31 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Grizzlies48c40,000$19,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,629.1838248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pelicans37c31,500$11,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,780.5769852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Pelicans52c30,991$16,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,107.547144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Pelicans40c30,604$12,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,097.7519249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pelicans40c28,539$11,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,342.11,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Pelicans37c25,100$9,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,28820253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Pelicans38c20,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6007149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576d…767dbacked Grizzlies62c20,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Pelicans37c19,000$7,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0303663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Pelicans40c18,088$7,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,242.9111535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Grizzlies53c17,174$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,054.3785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Pelicans38c15,953$6,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,033.3471052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Pelicans37c11,368$4,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,206.1627848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Pelicans37c11,111$4,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,111.0715952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Pelicans67c10,779$7,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,211.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-56.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans37c10,500$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8852,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans38c10,500$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Pelicans37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f89…d508backed Pelicans22c9,091$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Pelicans37c8,381$3,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,135.6112160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Pelicans33c7,886$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.6241848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Pelicans39c6,513$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.053237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed Pelicans37c6,072$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.642951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pelicans38c5,250$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.981,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…2032backed Pelicans39c5,128$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.283630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Pelicans39c5,118$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.999838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Pelicans38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90016942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pelicans37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85035235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Grizzlies61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9504553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.972,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Grizzlies71c4,339$3,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.7827917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Pelicans36c4,150$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.1525845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans37c3,982$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.533,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x630c…3801backed Grizzlies40c3,400$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.431942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Grizzlies61c3,282$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.371,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Pelicans43c3,264$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.453053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Pelicans38c3,000$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.9980146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans41c2,925$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.791,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Grizzlies65c2,846$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.7848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Grizzlies79c2,700$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5788036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9b1…2c46backed Pelicans37c2,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans38c2,650$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.2466250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25a1…67b0backed Grizzlies62c2,550$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9693756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Grizzlies61c2,509$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.527051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Grizzlies62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pelicans44c2,200$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans37c2,012$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a5…fae0backed Pelicans37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7403138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…26efbacked Pelicans37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7401216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-69.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Pelicans38c2,000$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.3375347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed Grizzlies62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pelicans41c1,963$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.1281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Grizzlies62c1,814$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.341,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb4…9f2bbacked Grizzlies41c1,693$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.522050%10 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Pelicans38c1,688$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.9930053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d1…f3a9backed Grizzlies64c1,570$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.85650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83f7…fb38backed Pelicans37c1,536$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.491540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Grizzlies63c1,514$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.846145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked Grizzlies62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.99580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans1c1,489$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Grizzlies63c1,463$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.711854.2%64 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Pelicans37c1,400$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51812143%52 W · 69 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c1…54b0backed Pelicans71c1,300$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9234327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Pelicans1c1,282$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.325502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Grizzlies62c1,250$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.495650%28 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7780…f218backed Grizzlies62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…50c9backed Grizzlies40c1,120$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6727024.3%17 W · 53 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Pelicans38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40024323.9%58 W · 185 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Grizzlies62c1,050$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39930157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans37c1,050$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.51,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Pelicans36c1,008$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36215656.4%88 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x111c…2ac5backed Pelicans38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3803250%16 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Grizzlies63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3704951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bff…6f0cbacked Pelicans36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602540%10 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pelicans48c1,000$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.455,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfa…8d6cbacked Grizzlies63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702850%14 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Pelicans38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Pelicans37c999.98$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.991,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2fc…1881backed Pelicans38c976.97$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pelicans36c934.08$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Grizzlies60c858.1$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34444459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Pelicans36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28846928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Pelicans16c730.64$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.99849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa16f…b703backed Pelicans33c723.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Pelicans60c722.85$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.238151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Grizzlies63c700$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25931347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Pelicans50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35048137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab26…0c0cbacked Pelicans15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530619.9%61 W · 245 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Pelicans37c693$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4126149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Pelicans38c684.45$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.098043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Pelicans38c657.89$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Grizzlies50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.