NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Magic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7456b4b9d59baa55baa7c4cbb664fe9d67e0185b5a9db03071128bc9e459408a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Heat, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $820,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat | 25c | 40,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Magic | 66c | 36,872$24,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,391.62 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Magic | 76c | 30,000$22,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,300 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…4511backed Heat | 24c | 29,316$7,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,035.81 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Magic | 61c | 23,075$14,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,016.44 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Heat | 25c | 22,536$5,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,633.9 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Magic | 76c | 20,250$15,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,860 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked Magic | 75c | 18,585$13,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646.33 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Magic | 54c | 15,384$8,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,094.58 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Magic | 76c | 13,044$9,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157.45 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Heat | 23c | 12,992$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.15 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Heat | 25c | 12,500$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f89…d508backed Heat | 25c | 12,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Magic | 71c | 11,050$7,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,204.91 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Magic | 76c | 11,000$8,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.99 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magic | 53c | 10,404$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,848.98 | 815 | 29.4%240 W · 575 L | -37.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Heat | 33c | 10,157$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.19 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Magic | 75c | 9,066$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.43 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Heat | 24c | 8,350$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Heat | 24c | 7,491$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.9 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Heat | 25c | 7,352$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.9 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Magic | 76c | 6,262$4,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.99 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Heat | 23c | 5,675$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…1968backed Heat | 25c | 5,076$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…594abacked Magic | 50c | 4,626$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Heat | 23c | 4,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.98 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat | 1c | 3,951$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Heat | 31c | 3,940$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.35 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Magic | 75c | 3,830$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Magic | 68c | 3,514$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.5 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…f661backed Heat | 27c | 3,202$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.55 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Heat | 25c | 3,050$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Heat | 24c | 2,925$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Heat | 43c | 2,845$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.22 | 444 | 59.7%265 W · 179 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Heat | 25c | 2,800$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Magic | 59c | 2,510$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.37 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdd…5feabacked Heat | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Heat | 37c | 2,303$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Magic | 64c | 2,177$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.7 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…a13cbacked Heat | 36c | 2,100$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Magic | 76c | 2,053$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.74 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat | 25c | 2,049$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.14 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Magic | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Magic | 50c | 1,922$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Magic | 59c | 1,845$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.13 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Magic | 66c | 1,769$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.8 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Magic | 62c | 1,668$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.96 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Heat | 31c | 1,616$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Heat | 33c | 1,564$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.21 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heat | 37c | 1,539$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.75 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…3801backed Magic | 33c | 1,501$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…19e8backed Magic | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.54 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Magic | 64c | 1,444$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.36 | 480 | 46%221 W · 259 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 76c | 1,255$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Heat | 46c | 1,202$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.85 | 853 | 44%375 W · 478 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 69c | 1,196$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.73 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…a976backed Magic | 66c | 1,121$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.67 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Magic | 36c | 1,119$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Magic | 75c | 1,105$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 618 | 51.6%319 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Magic | 75c | 1,072$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Magic | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Magic | 75c | 1,036$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.91 | 107 | 69.2%74 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…3155backed Magic | 31c | 1,033$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Magic | 76c | 1,031$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.44 | 949 | 51.3%487 W · 462 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 42c | 1,022$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.23 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c1…54b0backed Heat | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Magic | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Magic | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…fae0backed Magic | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Magic | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Heat | 12c | 999.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 384 | 34.9%134 W · 250 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…2fd8backed Magic | 77c | 974.03$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Heat | 2c | 958.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Heat | 24c | 939.98$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 42c | 938.28$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Heat | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Magic | 58c | 850$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.88 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Heat | 24c | 833.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Heat | 24c | 819.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 20.1%35 W · 139 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…0bddbacked Heat | 46c | 807.56$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Heat | 24c | 807$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Heat | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Heat | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Heat | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Magic | 75c | 748.18$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.03 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Magic | 73c | 744$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.44 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161e…6ef0backed Magic | 52c | 700.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Magic | 75c | 698.25$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.56 | 352 | 35.8%126 W · 226 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…f784backed Heat | 29c | 690.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Magic | 75c | 690$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…ce9fbacked Heat | 24c | 690$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed Heat | 26c | 670$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Magic | 61c | 668$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.56 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…51eabacked Heat | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Magic | 75c | 665.74$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Heat | 39c | 644.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Heat | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Magic | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Magic | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 224 | 49.1%110 W · 114 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Heat | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Magicthis page
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.