Weather · resolved market
2025 September third hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce1fe6d321c830593e97b55f688d130d3fad5a7a8899b0fb1b59b034860c36da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 73c | 21,833$15,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,945.02 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…ba6cbacked Yes | 27c | 15,043$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 23c | 12,947$2,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,981.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 76c | 8,750$6,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,645.07 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…f505backed Yes | 19c | 8,291$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…be70backed Yes | 35c | 8,004$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 35c | 6,683$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.29 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 10c | 4,351$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.5 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,200$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.63 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 36c | 4,197$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.65 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 72c | 4,135$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.58 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d7bcbacked Yes | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes | 43c | 3,944$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 37c | 3,700$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.37 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 80c | 3,451$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.87 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…ede0backed Yes | 13c | 3,126$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…106bbacked No | 63c | 2,108$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 1,931$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 1,920$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.87 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,874$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330c…b816backed Yes | 4c | 1,869$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,507$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…0fd4backed Yes | 34c | 1,363$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 78c | 1,191$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,027$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.76 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked No | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +824.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 15c | 903.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.24 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 17c | 770.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.54 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 63c | 753.72$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 13c | 705$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 57c | 694.48$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 37c | 663.92$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…ee73backed Yes | 50c | 596.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 73c | 585.1$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 20c | 493.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 35c | 474.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 22c | 451.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.53 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 78c | 443.74$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…8664backed Yes | 26c | 425.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 56c | 418.44$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…19b2backed Yes | 38c | 400$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed No | 34c | 380.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.22 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked No | 37c | 375.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed No | 23c | 364.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 19c | 356.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 17c | 354$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 13c | 350$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 26c | 350$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fb…9cf8backed Yes | 72c | 349.15$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 346$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 29c | 342$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 44c | 340.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 68c | 339.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 31c | 307.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked No | 8c | 299.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 19c | 272.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed Yes | 44c | 227.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…3cb1backed Yes | 50c | 224.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 53c | 222$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 17c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…dab3backed Yes | 22c | 189.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…9e42backed Yes | 39c | 183.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 36c | 181.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…e608backed Yes | 54c | 178.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 52c | 174$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…ff63backed No | 62c | 162.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…49d2backed Yes | 29c | 153.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…6741backed Yes | 47c | 153.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 17c | 148.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…79f0backed Yes | 38c | 147.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 7c | 145.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…63b2backed Yes | 36c | 138.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…329cbacked Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…44bcbacked Yes | 47c | 129.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 19c | 127$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +294.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…9e4fbacked No | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +990.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…03fabacked Yes | 33c | 118.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked No | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252a…fe42backed Yes | 29c | 102.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed No | 20c | 102.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 13c | 101$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 55c | 99.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…c454backed Yes | 24c | 92.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…bcd6backed Yes | 29c | 77.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 57c | 64.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 72c | 61.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 31c | 54.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…c6d9backed Yes | 68c | 51.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 33c | 50.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…871dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2025 September third hottest on record?this page
- 2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record?No won
- 2025 September hottest on record?No won
- 2025 September second hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.