Weather · resolved market
2025 August third hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504c233d17a7d1e1797354180db6c5692695c5d1e20f26108dd381eb15dab918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 28c | 30,691$8,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,545.3 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed No | 1c | 30,129$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.83 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 67c | 24,925$16,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,225.62 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 2,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 32c | 2,466$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.66 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 8c | 2,121$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 71c | 1,932$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 56c | 1,510$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 5c | 1,473$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,385$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed No | 1c | 1,348$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 1c | 1,153$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 58c | 965.7$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 1c | 948.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 65c | 872.6$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.97 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 746.12$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 693.7$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 69c | 566.32$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 558.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 516$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 57c | 427.62$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 57c | 240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Yes | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 42c | 177$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…b901backed Yes | 42c | 136.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 40c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 75.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…ee64backed No | 56c | 53.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…08d5backed No | 53c | 37.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 63c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d5…a7cbbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 57c | 27.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…c0dabacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 55c | 24.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.