Earnings · resolved market
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a695aa8e816e99fe1c400b0fceed1c2ec2fc16ac0a674cf8b048e58f11dcff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 16c | 10,531$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,871.81 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 27c | 7,258$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,277.21 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 17c | 5,885$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,909.82 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…8e98backed Yes | 1c | 5,222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 18c | 2,543$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.5 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 18c | 2,475$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 1,866$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.28 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 875.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.14 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 850.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.35 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 28c | 832.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed Yes | 76c | 832.07$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 27c | 647.82$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.53 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…3495backed No | 48c | 553.15$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 19c | 499$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 79c | 481.25$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…42ccbacked Yes | 66c | 475.61$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 35c | 453.76$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 79c | 388.93$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 17c | 380.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 10c | 366.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.05 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 15c | 306.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.67 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 19c | 301.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 22c | 280$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 79c | 277$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…7907backed No | 11c | 220$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…b3e4backed No | 20c | 211.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…83d0backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 78c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 22c | 195$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 21c | 173.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 171$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…c432backed Yes | 24c | 158.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 156$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 20c | 140$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…bbccbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 16c | 123.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…52b1backed Yes | 17c | 123.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked No | 22c | 123.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…8e34backed No | 19c | 112.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +437.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…438cbacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…3585backed Yes | 78c | 109.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…ebefbacked No | 17c | 104.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…80e4backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 39c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 80c | 38.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 80c | 37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…3c7bbacked Yes | 77c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…4c7dbacked Yes | 68c | 17.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.