TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will iPhone 17 cost more than $800?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75e7…9080backed Yes4c10,644$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.7310426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8245…ebedbacked No79c4,047$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No72c3,371$2,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.667540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d50…1baebacked Yes1c3,236$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+140%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2475…a2b2backed Yes1c2,864$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes23c2,629$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c2,201$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.9945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c2,048$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.4225731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No63c1,973$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.392944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,846$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.071,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes22c1,621$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.231154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29f1…f029backed No74c1,601$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c1,429$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.911124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x612f…2467backed No71c1,374$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes23c1,215$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.341225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No53c1,179$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5581650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes33c1,100$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+77.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes49c1,034$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.141020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes33c1,024$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.842835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes49c1,009$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.386053.3%32 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed Yes39c815.77$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes22c770$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.323652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No53c759.87$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.63839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes74c717.02$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.592128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed No71c702.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes52c665.91$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.324641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes39c612.61$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.71714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed Yes35c574.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-79.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes18c522$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes26c502.87$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba99…2a27backed No72c502.81$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c491.31$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes42c469.1$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.432429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes41c455.7$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.612636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc09…dbfabacked Yes24c455.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x840e…cae3backed Yes42c449.51$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf830…3437backed Yes38c441.8$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1453…a680backed No69c430$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes19c420.81$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7375…d41cbacked Yes23c419.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No63c400$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.422454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed No71c381.86$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes22c377.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.363135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6999…ca8fbacked No68c364.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x674f…d309backed Yes19c362.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed No59c358.98$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes35c354.84$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.820418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No59c336.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.296453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No66c331.44$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.685100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No58c324$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.08683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.58per pick26cpaid+987.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0368…8febbacked Yes32c321.37$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes34c320.39$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2811549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes75c317$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.731040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes29c313.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9970%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed No62c310.97$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a72…03dabacked Yes21c304.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bf…e150backed Yes34c296.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes34c294.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3211…7921backed No62c290.19$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+160.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x124e…a8a9backed No45c290$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.52944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ed…a1abbacked No70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No76c284.48$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.041866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes29c276.8$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8325122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2034…e719backed Yes36c274.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed No71c262.62$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.791376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes33c260.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.97757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76de…caf5backed Yes39c258.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes26c252.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.353810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc2…4bd3backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes22c236.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe923…0129backed Yes43c233.31$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeede…4287backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bb4…f59dbacked Yes32c213.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ee…113ebacked Yes23c212.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa962…8978backed Yes25c201.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…cc9abacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7812636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed Yes23c189$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.472231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes27c187.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed Yes19c184.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.871040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9841…5f36backed Yes9c181.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x841b…5a7dbacked No67c169.33$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Yes16c149.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+72.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d33…91adbacked Yes34c136.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d6…a33bbacked Yes37c136$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed No75c135.86$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No62c133.41$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.972142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20b0…c595backed Yes26c132.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x543f…2e82backed Yes19c132$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf650…ae84backed Yes40c127.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x303e…8ce7backed No76c113.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9f…bd44backed Yes45c111.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9b…1666backed Yes38c109.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes20c109.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.737636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No61c109.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.532347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ee…5ea5backed Yes27c105.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes34c105.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.