Us Politics · resolved market
US tariffs on European cars before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e9d8bbef9010b1af25b77cc6fc84aaf7ae845367adb6699770df847ae1cf6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 5c | 1,337$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +101%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 22c | 671.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…d2f0backed No | 8c | 656.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 72c | 627.24$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.72 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 5c | 555$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 32c | 497.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.77 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 31c | 489.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 72c | 389.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 73c | 376.42$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…e3e1backed No | 31c | 321$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…31e6backed No | 27c | 259.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 251.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 227.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 218.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 28c | 201.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 11c | 154.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 75c | 142.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…b701backed No | 32c | 130.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed No | 33c | 120.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…c8dbbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…a98abacked No | 25c | 96.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed No | 20c | 96.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 68c | 87.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 81.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…07e9backed No | 19c | 71.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed No | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked No | 19c | 59.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…e2d3backed No | 27c | 55.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…1fbbbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 33c | 48.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 66c | 43.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed No | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 78c | 40.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…8928backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…56a7backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 69c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8501…52dfbacked Yes | 69c | 26.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 65c | 24.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…5037backed Yes | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.