NHL · resolved market
Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3201bd90ba285e70dfa206bd8465a5a9ef6bec6ffa49999d73b9b16108d76317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 72c | 11,595$8,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.39 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Yes | 28c | 11,249$3,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,116.6 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,360$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.22 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…7c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 956$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.04 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…9022backed Yes | 11c | 770.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…47b0backed No | 74c | 658.1$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…e5febacked Yes | 6c | 587.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 17c | 412$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 9c | 386$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Yes | 27c | 306.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…962ebacked Yes | 16c | 251.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 9c | 224.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 16c | 217.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 79c | 208.56$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 208.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 74c | 196.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 163.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 12c | 139.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…e3a8backed Yes | 27c | 139.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked No | 79c | 131$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 124$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…e1c1backed Yes | 17c | 90.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…5c79backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?this page
- Will Aleksander Barkov win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Brad Marchand win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Connor McDavid win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Frederik Andersen win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Mikko Rantanen win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Sam Bennett win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?Yes won
- Will Sergei Bobrovsky win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Stuart Skinner win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.