NHL · resolved market
Will Sam Bennett win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3e4fdcf4e0a8b82d25c3f63b3ef85603a618c9138d0d9a091a4c5bc6f559e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 59c | 5,076$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.8 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 41c | 2,748$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 4c | 572.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Yes | 36c | 466.12$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.12 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 63c | 400$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 45c | 388.1$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.06 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…47b0backed No | 60c | 332.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 35c | 318.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 42c | 305.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 52c | 288.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.48 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 38c | 208$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 65c | 194.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 42c | 169.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 68c | 146.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 32c | 135$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 26c | 122.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 57c | 112.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…496fbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 62c | 99.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 60c | 76.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 37c | 67.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes | 59c | 50.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed No | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 61c | 33.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Bennett win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?this page
- Will Aleksander Barkov win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Brad Marchand win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Connor McDavid win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Frederik Andersen win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Mikko Rantanen win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Sergei Bobrovsky win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Stuart Skinner win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.