NHL · resolved market
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f4bbefa55768a8875610b1961ec256e7cd690efbe3a5491514d5b7d99b55ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 14c | 1,797$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 73c | 1,442$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.93 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,239$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.17 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 39c | 861$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.28 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 624.68$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…496fbacked Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 64c | 446.8$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…31e3backed Yes | 46c | 438.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 20c | 390.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Yes | 23c | 345.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed No | 76c | 320$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 69c | 313.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…962ebacked Yes | 29c | 280.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Yes | 45c | 224.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 63c | 220.85$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed Yes | 49c | 212.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 45c | 158.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 54c | 124$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8f…ebabbacked No | 72c | 111.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 57c | 105.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 56c | 101$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 44c | 101$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…f663backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Yes | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 52c | 90.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 52c | 80.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ec…b90ebacked Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 28c | 79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…9022backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…522fbacked Yes | 51c | 58.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…6038backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…719ebacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 26c | 43.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…9f73backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…6dccbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…c3c3backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Connor McDavid win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?this page
- Will Aleksander Barkov win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Brad Marchand win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Frederik Andersen win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Mikko Rantanen win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Sam Bennett win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?Yes won
- Will Sergei Bobrovsky win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
- Will Stuart Skinner win the 2025 Conn Smythe award?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.