World Politics · resolved market
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0337e6e21deafdc5d8263e5fe96a15b5796ddc5e7991667cfca6d56a30854e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 15c | 13,697$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.18 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,888$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 2c | 1,399$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 10c | 1,165$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 65c | 1,070$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.63 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 20c | 999.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 874.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 80c | 626.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 15c | 607.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 13c | 550.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…82d5backed Yes | 39c | 515.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 18c | 470$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 429.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 418.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 364.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 8c | 360.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 33c | 359$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 63c | 306$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed Yes | 39c | 303$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 67c | 302.18$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…44d0backed No | 67c | 298.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 20c | 268.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 11c | 264.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 71c | 214.26$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 36c | 204.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 198.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 178.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…b91ebacked Yes | 39c | 103.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 80c | 67.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 19c | 63.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf08…f268backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.