NHL · resolved market
Will Connor McDavid score a goal in Game 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9be19daea8f25e3c47be0a9566d6ac2215fe3bddbe94aff58d9260b0ad05dfa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a1c…2dccbacked Yes | 38c | 950$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…0a5fbacked No | 62c | 505$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…2035backed No | 62c | 495$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 59c | 110.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…94e9backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…698bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed Yes | 25c | 41.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Yes | 75c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…e1c1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Connor McDavid score a goal in Game 5?this page
- Will Aleksander Barkov score a goal in Game 5?No won
- Will Corey Perry score a goal in Game 5?Yes won
- Will Leon Draisaitl score a goal in Game 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.