NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63bc8aad008e69d12705c27dc8c2d3483db2f1dd1e201da7bbf4cc24318797d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Titans | 48c | 31,447$14,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,959.27 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…efc3backed Broncos | 53c | 16,131$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,630.83 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Titans | 47c | 7,690$3,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,614.86 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos | 53c | 6,955$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.85 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Broncos | 53c | 6,515$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.2 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Broncos | 51c | 5,082$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.18 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos | 53c | 3,326$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.23 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Titans | 48c | 3,319$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.47 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Titans | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Broncos | 52c | 2,011$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.24 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos | 52c | 1,870$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.49 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos | 53c | 1,585$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.95 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Titans | 1c | 1,135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Broncos | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Broncos | 57c | 895.34$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Broncos | 52c | 540$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Titans | 48c | 502.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.12 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Broncos | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Titans | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Titans | 46c | 451.24$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Broncos | 53c | 446.08$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Titans | 50c | 336.56$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Titans | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Broncos | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.87 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…afd7backed Broncos | 54c | 226.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…07b3backed Broncos | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Titans | 41c | 217.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Titans | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Titans | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Broncos | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Broncos | 54c | 185.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Broncos | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Broncos | 53c | 159.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Broncos | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Broncos | 50c | 110.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Broncos | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Titans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Titans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed Titans | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Titans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Titans | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Broncos | 53c | 95.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbc…0a28backed Broncos | 53c | 94.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…61b1backed Broncos | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…b8a0backed Broncos | 53c | 91.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Titans | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…72dabacked Titans | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Titans | 49c | 81.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Titans | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Broncos | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Broncos | 53c | 60.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Titans | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Broncos | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Broncos | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Titans | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Titans | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Broncos | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Titans | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Broncos | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +115%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Broncos | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…e6e7backed Titans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)this page
- Titans vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Titans vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.