NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4112b35470c0891d0a40c88d7a747094f78266ea2ef718893ca816b1ffd79ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 47c | 8,256$3,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,382.51 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…2c7dbacked Bucks | 54c | 6,443$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…4830backed Bucks | 54c | 6,107$3,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards | 53c | 4,089$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.67 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 53c | 3,495$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…f747backed Bucks | 54c | 2,668$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…1b12backed Bucks | 54c | 2,620$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 47c | 2,402$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…bc34backed Bucks | 54c | 2,355$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 53c | 2,337$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…c806backed Wizards | 46c | 2,323$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…d85fbacked Bucks | 54c | 2,262$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 53c | 2,231$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.21 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…cfa5backed Wizards | 46c | 2,121$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…b65dbacked Wizards | 46c | 2,100$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23d…47d5backed Wizards | 46c | 2,020$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…863dbacked Bucks | 54c | 2,001$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…3e4dbacked Wizards | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…aedbbacked Wizards | 46c | 1,986$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 47c | 1,933$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.49 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ab…1be3backed Bucks | 54c | 1,737$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 52c | 1,680$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.61 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Bucks | 52c | 1,375$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.86 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…692abacked Wizards | 46c | 924$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…f54bbacked Wizards | 46c | 904$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…760bbacked Wizards | 46c | 889$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95c…052ebacked Wizards | 46c | 874$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 53c | 858.01$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.8 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…d344backed Wizards | 46c | 855$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f0…3e08backed Wizards | 46c | 842$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…aecebacked Wizards | 46c | 820$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7341…9fd6backed Wizards | 46c | 785$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…6104backed Wizards | 46c | 782$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…8500backed Wizards | 46c | 755$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a4…0839backed Wizards | 46c | 750$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…b138backed Wizards | 46c | 725$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 50c | 697.66$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4400…f4f0backed Wizards | 46c | 696$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc859…b72cbacked Wizards | 46c | 667$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Bucks | 54c | 657.41$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…c4d6backed Wizards | 46c | 638$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…c86fbacked Wizards | 46c | 608$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…e77dbacked Wizards | 46c | 579$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…7a31backed Wizards | 46c | 550$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Wizards | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Bucks | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Bucks | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Bucks | 54c | 174.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Wizards | 47c | 167.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards | 48c | 126.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 52c | 113$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards | 53c | 103.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Wizards | 47c | 80.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Wizards | 53c | 54.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Bucks | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…28dcbacked Bucks | 52c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Wizards | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…dee4backed Bucks | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Wizards | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Bucks | 53c | 30.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Wizards | 53c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…e6e7backed Bucks | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed Wizards | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Wizards won
- Alexandre Sarr: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Under won
- Cole Anthony: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.