NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed91ccbf7822de995408b191a3f32b2cb09f8f76f79a53d94829b613122202f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Wizards | 48c | 2,064$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.71 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 51c | 1,966$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.44 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Wizards | 46c | 1,859$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.7 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Wizards | 46c | 161.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecea…2399backed Wizards | 70c | 107.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Wizards | 49c | 101.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Bucks | 30c | 97.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…79c7backed Bucks | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bucks | 50c | 65.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Bucks | 56c | 61.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Wizards | 44c | 54.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Bucks | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Wizards | 46c | 43.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…bedfbacked Bucks | 39c | 38.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5205…da18backed Bucks | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…bf46backed Wizards | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Wizards | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Wizards won
- Alexandre Sarr: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Under won
- Cole Anthony: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.