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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$256,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$257,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,243 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards50c60,978$30,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,608.891,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks50c54,683$27,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,341.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Bucks51c36,301$18,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,417.853920.5%8 W · 31 L-11.0wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-58.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Bucks48c27,456$13,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,179.0929351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f7…b2e9backed Wizards50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Wizards52c16,000$8,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,68060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks50c13,920$6,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,967.744,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards50c10,347$5,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,210.249,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b41…a44abacked Wizards50c6,508$3,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaccc…2765backed Wizards50c6,500$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934f…24e7backed Bucks50c6,355$3,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,177.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31e0…82e5backed Wizards50c5,900$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Wizards52c5,686$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.115549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wizards51c5,655$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,764.862,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce8…9410backed Bucks50c5,600$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb7c…068bbacked Wizards50c5,230$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e24…b89fbacked Bucks50c5,021$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards49c3,886$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.712,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6520…7d3cbacked Bucks50c3,700$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks50c3,542$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.412,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bucks49c3,380$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Wizards51c3,107$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.3139842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4171…b957backed Wizards50c3,046$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Bucks47c3,004$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.9311653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Wizards50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50014346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks50c2,670$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.982,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Wizards52c2,631$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.0925753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…793abacked Bucks50c2,600$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb9…1ee3backed Bucks50c2,508$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a7…9cb1backed Bucks51c2,479$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.74633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks48c2,360$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.934,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Bucks58c2,325$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.0216335.6%58 W · 105 L-12.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x474a…dcf1backed Bucks50c2,300$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards49c2,226$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.494,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Wizards49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ac6…1b39backed Bucks50c1,898$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9323…931dbacked Bucks50c1,700$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards51c1,568$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.321,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf511…50dabacked Wizards50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…1880backed Wizards50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Wizards52c1,279$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.9941553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards51c1,271$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.6682442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84f…94e8backed Bucks50c1,250$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86a…e2c4backed Wizards50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741a…4dbebacked Bucks49c1,078$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5283138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Wizards50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50018345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ced…0784backed Wizards50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Bucks48c859.01$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.324650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards50c850$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4256,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad9…3bbabacked Wizards50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Wizards51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2467252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards42c586.86$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.383,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bucks49c544.76$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9392753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bucks48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Wizards52c481.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.6250954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Wizards52c480$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.441947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Bucks49c467.29$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.975139.2%20 W · 31 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Bucks49c409.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Wizards52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19215849.4%78 W · 80 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Bucks49c387.04$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1909051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bucks7c340.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.859141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8617…379ebacked Bucks22c313.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.922965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks48c309.04$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.343,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12a2…fa75backed Bucks32c280.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks51c250.97$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.823,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.673,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8a…e587backed Wizards50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Wizards54c248$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.764755.3%26 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks47c243.43$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.863,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0863447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade1…0493backed Bucks49c203.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.963740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2984…57c8backed Bucks50c198.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Bucks49c188$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.121,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Bucks41c160$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0745653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Bucks50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Bucks48c130.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3837848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Bucks49c122.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.843244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards50c118.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.412,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed Wizards52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3812549.6%62 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Bucks45c97.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3239736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Wizards54c94.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6517545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks50c91.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.143,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks49c89.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards52c87.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7949852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks48c84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.323,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Wizards52c83.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Wizards52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.921650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5b…2d6ebacked Wizards52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.923265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Wizards52c75.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3331155%171 W · 140 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3518…c4aebacked Wizards52c75.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1611241.1%46 W · 66 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Wizards51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.151,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ef…0acdbacked Bucks44c69.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Bucks49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Bucks35c61.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3814127.7%39 W · 102 L-16.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa574…28dcbacked Wizards50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.794040%16 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Wizards52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.819350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Wizards51c58.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8121645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards56c54.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.343,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bucks46c51.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7659347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.