TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Bucks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a7a…15a4backed Wizards55c2,727$1,500 inWon+$1,227.2731044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks45c1,004$452 inLost-$451.825,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Bucks45c1,000$450 inLost-$45048956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks45c494.33$222 inLost-$222.452,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks45c200$90 inLost-$903,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Wizards50c41.96$21 inWon+$2114949.7%74 W · 75 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345b…8cbdbacked Bucks50c40$20 inLost-$202065%13 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Bucks52c34.96$18 inLost-$18.0819543.1%84 W · 111 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.