TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,148 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over26c2,142$553 inLost-$552.658,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Over58c1,155$665 inLost-$664.6825847.3%122 W · 136 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over1c1,152$10 inLost-$10.1567921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c1,048$503 inWon+$544.834,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under46c723.91$333 inWon+$390.9162546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over5c712.28$35 inLost-$35.391,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2745…a5fbbacked Under46c543.53$247 inWon+$296.034040%16 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under49c408.16$200 inWon+$208.161,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over54c400$216 inLost-$2163,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under43c340.14$148 inWon+$192.562,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c281.63$149 inLost-$149.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab8…b5a6backed Under46c215.22$99 inWon+$116.2210143.6%44 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over55c182.21$100 inLost-$100.223,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc6c…fe22backed Over55c172.73$95 inLost-$957454.1%40 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over53c125$66 inLost-$65.833,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over52c115.38$60 inLost-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under46c102.42$47 inWon+$55.3154549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Over54c100$54 inLost-$5474547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under48c99$48 inWon+$51.482,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under49c90$44 inWon+$46.23,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Over21c50$10 inLost-$10.417243%74 W · 98 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0250…278ebacked Under78c40$31 inWon+$8.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x828d…b005backed Over56c33.21$19 inLost-$18.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…2d57backed Under45c28.58$13 inWon+$15.7214154.6%77 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.