NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08840ab92be75de7821fdaceaa382959c1a10a0c84098bd4dbd48ee107ff1836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 51c | 28,391$14,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,867.23 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 53c | 22,323$11,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,513.28 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Under | 49c | 20,622$10,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,104.64 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 51c | 16,599$8,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,061.83 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,050 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Under | 50c | 13,599$6,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,812 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 5,981$2,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,797.97 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 52c | 5,015$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.81 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Under | 48c | 4,625$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.97 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Under | 45c | 3,987$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 2,980$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.6 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 53c | 2,938$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.57 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Under | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 49c | 2,033$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Under | 47c | 999.94$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.97 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Over | 57c | 914.23$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.23 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 43c | 815.61$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.71 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…9718backed Over | 53c | 280.91$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 52c | 189.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 16c | 158.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Under | 50c | 149.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…52b3backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 10c | 120.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…4a3cbacked Under | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Over | 52c | 112.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 52c | 108.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Under | 38c | 92.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 53c | 90.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…80f8backed Over | 52c | 81.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 49c | 71.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Over | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed Under | 47c | 48.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Over | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…8c48backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Over | 54c | 35.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 53c | 28.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…e6e7backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Over | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.46per pick | 42cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Over | 65c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5this page
- Ravens vs. BillsBills won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.