NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6bd8d9175a64357a4c7bf2bbec15dc2277249b6af472b413ac04b55c5d6825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Bills, Ravens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Bills | 46c | 15,150$6,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,934.24 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Ravens | 54c | 12,785$6,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,855.22 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Bills | 45c | 10,467$4,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,710.01 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Ravens | 55c | 3,560$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Bills | 45c | 2,446$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Ravens | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d86…2182backed Ravens | 56c | 1,630$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ravens | 54c | 707$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.22 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Ravens | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ravens | 54c | 313.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…8e83backed Bills | 45c | 308.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bills | 44c | 239.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Ravens | 56c | 227$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Ravens | 55c | 221.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Bills | 46c | 217.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bills | 44c | 109.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Bills | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Bills | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Ravens | 55c | 94.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Bills | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Ravens | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ravens | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Ravens | 56c | 50.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bills | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Ravens | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Ravens | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Ravens | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…b678backed Ravens | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)this page
- Ravens vs. BillsBills won
- Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.