TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,891 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe80f…3354backed Yes78c18,538$14,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.022832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Yes78c11,610$9,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.711136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac24…10f2backed No40c5,127$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddc…03c1backed No2c5,098$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3368…02a7backed No76c4,197$3,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd160…5991backed No53c4,095$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b8…4834backed Yes49c4,044$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x352b…abd8backed No2c3,934$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f3…ceb4backed No51c3,585$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes55c3,333$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.85650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf880…135dbacked Yes56c3,177$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.841338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf017…1823backed No45c3,112$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.4860%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a27…42e9backed No37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e86…29abbacked Yes60c2,991$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes49c2,907$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.9913424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No56c2,894$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.7917859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No34c2,755$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.951442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b79…b838backed Yes47c2,736$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.592138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94c…e4cfbacked No38c2,654$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.34911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No12c2,363$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.981258.3%7 W · 5 L+5.4wins+0.45per pick14cpaid+416.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x90fb…1807backed Yes69c2,215$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No11c2,180$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+371.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes55c2,038$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.765332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29cf…7f5dbacked No1c1,999$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc628…54f0backed Yes76c1,972$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.631275%9 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+114.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No15c1,898$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.621723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f7…9ab2backed No59c1,857$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…4f91backed No48c1,795$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ff8…14efbacked Yes44c1,700$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes44c1,596$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.111421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked No77c1,559$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.061154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a35…bc55backed Yes46c1,553$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes43c1,522$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.653256.3%18 W · 14 L+6.0wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+565.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked No1c1,512$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2280%0 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42a0…7690backed Yes77c1,420$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,230$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.87663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x094d…c6abbacked Yes42c1,200$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes62c1,168$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.11533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c1,112$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.2119336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes34c1,085$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.852832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x994b…5495backed Yes67c1,007$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.231338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e5…c45bbacked Yes60c989.54$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No60c988.83$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.131346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cff…2349backed No59c988.79$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No25c966.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.632825%7 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes60c928.5$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e34…0ea8backed Yes24c880$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7d…182abacked Yes61c817.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed No52c801.64$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No18c776$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.681844.4%8 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.32per pick12cpaid+985.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xaec4…fa49backed No65c772.31$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes49c763.34$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.723174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes64c739.3$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.1533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No31c729.42$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No72c721.15$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Yes54c699.62$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74c…50b4backed Yes23c679.67$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.56425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…b745backed Yes45c592$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec2…1c4abacked Yes35c572.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+87.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fef…8a8fbacked No42c563.23$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.081650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x59a7…9f30backed No52c561.21$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes39c544.93$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.471637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+90.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d72…a399backed Yes48c531.33$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80de…ef85backed Yes41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2951643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+84.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62fe…3983backed No42c499.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes45c496.27$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.232420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes28c491.72$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No61c482.21$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.461275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4041…ca54backed Yes62c482.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a0…186fbacked Yes43c460.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No23c444.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.427126.8%19 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes47c414.76$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bf…c6e3backed No7c401.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No34c399.98$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1916740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8824…30babacked Yes39c379.53$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+93.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcef8…4730backed Yes27c375$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+84.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1111…ca23backed Yes27c364.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.233256.3%18 W · 14 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes45c364.14$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.35922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes74c361.4$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes50c353.9$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.952020%4 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-59.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes64c350$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1259645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe55c…8a38backed Yes35c333.85$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e22…19cebacked Yes46c331.41$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…98dbbacked No4c316.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24aa…cd37backed Yes56c309.59$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+311.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c305.32$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0121240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked No50c302.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1592157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ef…bf20backed Yes48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x426c…46c9backed No68c286.09$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc45a…1e13backed Yes41c285$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…8637backed No57c271.15$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes42c269.45$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6038…413ebacked Yes38c264.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.931154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7923…6c17backed No59c256.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…3006backed Yes45c252.73$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…5731backed Yes27c246$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a346backed Yes34c242.86$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4958…d14ebacked No29c239.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.