TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Marlins, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Nationals55c20,512$11,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,275.5755053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Marlins45c12,222$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.930255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals69c11,406$7,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,550.512,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a27…b9ddbacked Marlins48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Nationals52c9,907$5,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,755.4526949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Marlins48c9,181$4,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,366.287659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe84…779ebacked Nationals52c9,098$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,367.145947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins30c6,378$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.571,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Marlins45c6,300$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8351,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Nationals54c5,448$2,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,513.663152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Marlins34c4,925$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.681,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals52c4,139$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.831,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Nationals51c2,891$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.5334245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d4…5f79backed Marlins49c2,400$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Marlins39c2,337$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90068656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Marlins46c2,142$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.2743949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Marlins46c2,099$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.6121747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Marlins48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4a…048ebacked Marlins46c2,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9107247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals55c1,855$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.541,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marlins46c1,829$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.0612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Marlins46c1,413$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65013553.3%72 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…90babacked Nationals51c1,392$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Marlins48c1,332$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.2838949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals73c1,286$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.511,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals52c1,245$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.892,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Marlins50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60057744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Marlins48c1,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.9783248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Marlins19c1,186$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4678445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nationals53c1,019$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.8713355.6%74 W · 59 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd589…b134backed Nationals51c1,008$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+60.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Marlins48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Marlins46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46032651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Marlins48c996.54$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3411947.9%57 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins37c912$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.881,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Marlins48c721.19$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1714949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Marlins48c703.7$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7840152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Marlins49c637.76$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.570946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Marlins47c622.03$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5273149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Nationals52c615.47$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.089842.9%42 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Marlins7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4222312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Marlins49c583$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3313065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals50c566$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2831,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals67c565.84$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.74,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Marlins47c564.61$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3751347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Marlins50c499.99$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.51,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Marlins46c499$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4115033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Marlins47c476.57$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9916654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Marlins49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19617243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins48c385$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.81,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals53c364.66$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.876,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals51c362$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3898149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64b…483cbacked Marlins48c356.73$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…4768backed Nationals53c356.62$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.611747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins47c349.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.491,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Marlins46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13830151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Nationals50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f9…3a36backed Marlins20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870b…2181backed Marlins48c244.69$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab9…4669backed Nationals53c244.62$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.971650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b6…97b7backed Marlins48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Nationals53c205.06$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.388940.4%36 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Marlins47c205$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.358355.4%46 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Marlins49c203$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.474436.4%16 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa21a…53f7backed Marlins38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Nationals51c195.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0331347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Nationals52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.313959%23 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Nationals53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.686847.1%32 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Marlins6c179$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.374754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Marlins49c173.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Marlins45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.515642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Marlins44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6618446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Marlins22c137.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1888…e1cbbacked Nationals56c137.74$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.743043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Nationals76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5839160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Marlins45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Marlins47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Marlins38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b84…9d3bbacked Nationals68c101.36$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2818350.3%92 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Marlins46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4645732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Marlins50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcde…dc58backed Nationals52c98.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.081060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Nationals51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041540%6 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4243…35d1backed Nationals65c93.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.781163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88f5…ee20backed Marlins32c93.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Marlins47c82.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.651,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed Marlins43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024051.7%124 W · 116 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffc3…8fffbacked Marlins19c67.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f54…bd9ebacked Marlins49c66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Nationals62c65.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.896133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed2…53f6backed Nationals53c60.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Nationals52c59.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6512857%73 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5693…71fdbacked Marlins50c58.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.196544.6%29 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfafb…6de6backed Nationals52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Marlins47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6185047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Nationals52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2429145.4%132 W · 159 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b4b…94d4backed Nationals52c48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0425155.4%139 W · 112 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Marlins49c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.032,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Marlins46c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.241,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.