TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Mercury vs Aces

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Acesof Mercury, Aces
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,539 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2f8…56b6backed Mercury30c8,618$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.943652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Aces74c7,489$5,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.27771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Mercury19c6,887$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.197440.5%30 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mercury15c6,695$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.713246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Aces58c6,184$3,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,577.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mercury46c6,048$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.864959.2%29 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Aces53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Mercury2c5,048$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Aces55c4,869$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.961030%3 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick63cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Mercury47c3,775$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.987855.1%43 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff59…afeabacked Aces53c3,400$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b37…263bbacked Mercury47c3,300$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33cc…66a1backed Mercury47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd652…fa8fbacked Aces53c2,900$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3632100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90df…4c6bbacked Aces54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Mercury47c2,436$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.988551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ef…a23dbacked Mercury46c2,391$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Mercury37c2,300$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8616640.9%27 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Aces54c2,155$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.33458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb0…58b6backed Mercury46c2,065$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92021440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Aces53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…c3b4backed Aces54c1,678$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mercury45c1,222$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.977162%44 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+35.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mercury15c1,132$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2115246.7%71 W · 81 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mercury48c1,056$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.397236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Mercury46c1,015$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.9911754.7%64 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb4f…a90bbacked Mercury24c947.79$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.52425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury20c872.64$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5432047.8%153 W · 167 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mercury47c823$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.818548.2%41 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Aces55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36012840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury39c763$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6913044.6%58 W · 72 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Aces55c727.94$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.9412045%54 W · 66 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Aces54c702.49$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.49825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Mercury23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1383938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Aces54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27610337.9%39 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Aces53c600$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.716546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury25c519.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.477753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Mercury49c517.37$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.968633.7%29 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Mercury46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+45.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa73e…9e1bbacked Aces57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2151361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Aces79c485.67$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Mercury25c440.44$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.111546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+67.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Aces50c435.26$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.632152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58a4…57d4backed Mercury48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Mercury13c403.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.793943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Mercury18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722425%6 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x385a…08d1backed Mercury11c395.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.832825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c1…7fe5backed Aces54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.372646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury45c363.64$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.647851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Aces55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6417541.1%72 W · 103 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Aces54c354.07$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.872725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Mercury47c350.36$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Aces66c339.08$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.292755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe435…0bb1backed Aces54c310.64$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Aces55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13520642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Mercury45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1354942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Mercury45c299.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.993246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury45c296.55$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4512463.7%79 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0435…a10ebacked Mercury21c291.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c9…cf27backed Aces78c204.14$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.141070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023431.6%74 W · 160 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury50c201.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027232.7%89 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Mercury45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Aces76c197.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dae…a50bbacked Mercury25c196$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Aces52c191.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1611552.2%60 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Aces55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8210039%39 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed Aces53c159.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.191250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Mercury45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacf7…3032backed Mercury45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7405…4aa4backed Mercury16c128.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ff…1eb6backed Aces70c120.7$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.71369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Mercury16c114.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+55.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Mercury18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Mercury47c107.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aces71c104.9$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.177542.7%32 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Mercury45c102.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.062646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Mercury46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Mercury49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+94.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Aces66c99.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3412548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Mercury46c99.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4912833.6%43 W · 85 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd690…ad2abacked Mercury16c94.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3d…d8d1backed Aces74c93.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed11…a858backed Mercury26c88.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…1742backed Mercury47c74.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Aces68c68.61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.962878.6%22 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+62.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Mercury26c68.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked Mercury28c68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Aces54c48.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Aces74c43.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.241060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Mercury47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205234.6%18 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf913…5543backed Mercury42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Aces50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1914136.2%51 W · 90 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ba4…7dedbacked Mercury47c31.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3635…17c8backed Mercury47c31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7552…0f46backed Mercury47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8666…a368backed Mercury48c28.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Mercury46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.889839.8%39 W · 59 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x95de…42d5backed Aces54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.78757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.