TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Royals vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Royals, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,065,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,058,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,065,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 600 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Guardians52c530,697$275,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255,136.5438043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Royals51c203,617$103,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,844.717652.8%93 W · 83 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Guardians49c133,179$65,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,921.4935952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Royals48c65,000$31,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,20044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Royals8c60,816$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals28c46,647$13,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,245.111,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Guardians51c43,073$21,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,105.936547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Royals48c36,672$17,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,602.5645248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Royals48c33,333$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,999.8423752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Royals48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Royals49c19,846$9,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,724.434245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Royals49c19,123$9,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,375.1963152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Royals30c18,551$5,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,475.921,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Royals49c16,133$7,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,905.0533554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Guardians57c15,921$9,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,898.9833845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Guardians65c15,524$10,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,396.0721847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Guardians78c14,218$11,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.8378445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Royals48c11,111$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.2830255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Guardians51c8,333$4,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,113.422360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9598…1fd2backed Royals48c7,300$3,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,503.992339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Royals25c7,098$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.571,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e85…4d99backed Guardians52c6,821$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.082958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Royals48c6,724$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.6710041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Royals49c6,240$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.671,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Royals46c4,005$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.6369249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Royals8c3,300$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.46949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Royals49c3,246$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.61,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Guardians50c3,074$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+253%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals50c2,729$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.372,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Royals48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20039041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Guardians51c2,409$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.2643949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Royals49c2,368$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.311,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Royals49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011554.8%63 W · 52 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb61…6d7bbacked Royals25c2,001$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.161030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Guardians52c1,979$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.922347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Royals1c1,668$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.681,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Royals49c1,592$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.921,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Royals40c1,450$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.2412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Guardians49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.9932651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a0…0065backed Royals48c1,187$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Royals27c1,172$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.4420747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76de…8945backed Guardians52c1,156$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.88850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce3…4aa8backed Guardians52c1,144$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b68…72c7backed Royals48c1,113$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.24850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Royals50c1,029$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.3670946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Royals48c1,004$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.9220748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c0…cd82backed Guardians50c1,002$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fec…fc7bbacked Royals1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101022.9%3 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Royals48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Royals1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.325416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Guardians50c982.59$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.5573149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Royals49c981.63$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4816747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Royals47c799.99$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37683248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5453…b886backed Royals50c793.67$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e3…5e25backed Guardians52c771.23$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.192263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1010…4768backed Royals49c771.12$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.851747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Royals50c688.52$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3468852.3%46 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d8…655abacked Royals50c688$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians70c670.21$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5876456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Royals2c654.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.915852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Royals48c624$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.521,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Royals51c549.02$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28057744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians70c531.24$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.194,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Royals48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e86…93c2backed Royals47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Royals48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.999947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb00…528abacked Guardians50c479.68$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Guardians80c454.22$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.431241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9e…7293backed Royals50c408.61$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.312948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Royals49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Royals49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Guardians63c378.56$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.229044.4%40 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Royals4c325.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Royals49c315.8$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.549645.8%44 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Royals49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15054455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Guardians49c285$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3527751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Royals15c281.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Guardians52c266$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6824253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Royals31c250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.545732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Royals49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Royals47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.51,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians51c247$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.031,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f06…5fc9backed Royals49c228.57$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121850%9 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Guardians52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…5ffabacked Royals16c209.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Royals47c205$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.358355.4%46 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeac3…730ebacked Royals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Royals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Royals49c204.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920138.8%78 W · 123 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x90ac…4a3cbacked Royals49c204.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Royals48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Royals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9466751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Guardians52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Royals48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Guardians52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Guardians52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Guardians52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc805…e5dbbacked Royals48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcff…0e58backed Royals48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965048%24 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Guardians52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.