TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$493,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$502,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 596 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins19c209,673$40,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,501.351,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Marlins53c32,100$17,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,01345248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Nationals47c30,000$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,899.9926355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins49c13,928$6,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,805.741,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Nationals38c8,975$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,595.378445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Marlins46c8,698$4,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,032.8621847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins45c7,502$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Marlins32c6,820$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.381,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals52c6,539$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.662,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Nationals45c6,380$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,508.7534245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Nationals53c6,121$3,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,888.0117156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Nationals47c4,924$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,609.660249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Marlins53c4,777$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.8110041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals48c4,200$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16669249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Marlins54c3,882$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.2514148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins53c3,507$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.562,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals47c3,326$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.961,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Nationals66c2,952$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.6268769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Nationals46c2,317$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.2544456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals66c1,966$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.141,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nationals46c1,750$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94539041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Marlins54c1,343$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.215451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins53c1,172$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.191,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Nationals47c1,149$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.9457744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6d…df6abacked Nationals46c1,113$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.02875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd0…647bbacked Marlins54c1,107$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ff…0a9ebacked Marlins54c1,093$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.22714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-73%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cc1…6375backed Nationals46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nationals53c1,021$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.0813355.6%74 W · 59 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x486e…c403backed Nationals46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5403554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals55c997$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.956,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Marlins45c975.01$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.7920747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nationals46c969$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.261,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Nationals48c960.29$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.296747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals47c851$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.031,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43283248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nationals74c742.33$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.016,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Marlins52c695.65$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.7432651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ad…2b6bbacked Marlins54c695.33$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins24c691.13$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4995930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Marlins2c633.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.365852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Marlins55c616.74$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.8914055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…5bd1backed Nationals40c600.93$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.052941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e3…5e25backed Marlins54c595.8$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.732263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ab9…4669backed Nationals47c595.74$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.741650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nationals78c577$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6247745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Marlins54c549.01$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.794057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals45c519.84$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9151347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Marlins53c504$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.1273149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Marlins53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26595850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Marlins3c499.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals47c479.04$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.891,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Marlins54c453.02$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.639947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa93…afc1backed Marlins54c444.5$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.031258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Nationals46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7826055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Marlins54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012558.4%73 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins53c359.35$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.461,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Marlins53c303.96$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.11,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Marlins29c299.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8845732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dde…8a88backed Nationals53c293.68$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0310451.9%54 W · 50 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins54c293$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.221,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d61…1808backed Marlins31c258.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011056.4%62 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Marlins55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Marlins55c235.76$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5280955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Marlins41c231.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0251334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f06…5fc9backed Marlins55c227.27$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251850%9 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Marlins54c220$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.834051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals63c218.96$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.554,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Nationals47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7710041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Nationals47c212$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3624346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Nationals48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3314146.1%65 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Marlins53c205$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.658355.4%46 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc805…e5dbbacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcff…0e58backed Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085048%24 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…78e3backed Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac5…3536backed Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0f…f1dcbacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1243…18cfbacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…502ebacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…8364backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…05fabacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…cd16backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085149%25 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4463…7565backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ade…3223backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9788…ad77backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3070…218cbacked Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18fa…4a5ebacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec8b…716ebacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085040%20 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x247e…3a07backed Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e2…5daebacked Marlins54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a5b…02fabacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb006…289fbacked Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085048%24 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.