Earnings · resolved market
Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950e8cabb6e5afbc3f89555e50a80933e22ab12113d527ea1eda52e461c86c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 56c | 4,797$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.01 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked Yes | 45c | 2,366$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 56c | 2,346$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.85 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,884$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,297$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.86 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 53c | 1,283$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.01 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 957.93$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.99 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 43c | 870.45$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.05 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 41c | 764.61$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 40c | 689.81$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 74c | 668.8$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…5437backed Yes | 54c | 552.93$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed Yes | 40c | 500$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 49c | 438.42$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 410.4$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 42c | 405.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 49c | 350$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked No | 61c | 328.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked Yes | 47c | 316.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 34c | 301.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…8f06backed Yes | 49c | 295.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 41c | 283.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…2002backed Yes | 44c | 252.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed Yes | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 54c | 205$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 58c | 199.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked No | 53c | 189.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…4da4backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 137$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 61c | 133.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 23c | 120.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…d48bbacked Yes | 53c | 113.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 53c | 108.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 36c | 102.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 46c | 96.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 39c | 93.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…5543backed Yes | 51c | 77.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 44c | 69.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 41c | 63.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 72c | 58.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…4bfabacked No | 53c | 54.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 50.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ce…85b4backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2081…73b9backed No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…f56bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ed…1db7backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 49c | 36.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 60c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…8dc7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.