TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd923…3303backed No0c16,672$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No11c15,010$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.973030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed No1c12,858$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c8…1a4ebacked No1c12,791$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2a…39a0backed No0c11,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed No1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked No1c10,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f1…92edbacked No0c6,823$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0076…60d8backed No1c5,584$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes45c4,616$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe870…b406backed No1c4,401$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24d…d44bbacked No15c3,420$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.371656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No7c3,000$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No50c2,500$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.9911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b9…105bbacked No1c2,234$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe631…c7babacked No1c2,074$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd9…d4c9backed No1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes34c1,989$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4d…e15cbacked No1c1,981$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed Yes69c1,684$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No68c1,652$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.376647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f12…4e57backed Yes54c1,634$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes48c1,564$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No14c1,532$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2184942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e3…d0bfbacked No17c1,512$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e99…2a9fbacked Yes40c1,477$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.944117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ce…ba12backed No2c1,405$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No13c1,381$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.261450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c1,327$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.3926318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed No2c1,215$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes77c1,181$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.891353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes49c1,164$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.526420.3%13 W · 51 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes79c1,113$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No30c1,064$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.481770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x291e…4b6abacked No2c1,058$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…4e85backed No3c1,057$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadcf…0e2fbacked No2c1,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…979cbacked No3c960.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes34c957.59$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…e26dbacked Yes51c900.12$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6e…6574backed No1c875.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes47c862.6$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.914427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes58c857.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be5…a995backed No2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No57c791.53$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.868247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b09…e10fbacked Yes43c743.53$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5a…c699backed No2c719.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes50c714.09$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.53743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf96…ea6abacked No3c688.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No3c655.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.226033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39e…4f73backed No4c627.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a6…7263backed No16c621.55$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No9c598.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.129115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcedb…588bbacked Yes18c558.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+458.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes67c554.94$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed No55c541.04$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+69.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b1…55e1backed No6c538.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0122…159cbacked No4c538.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c513.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed No48c512.86$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabe9…4424backed Yes40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…c00cbacked No3c496.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceab…deefbacked No54c476.91$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.531163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No73c456.09$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.953666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes37c446.74$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.051040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79f…662ebacked No72c428.75$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes54c426.62$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.344334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed No12c419.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24012937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No67c394.02$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.386050%30 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed No15c369.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.98425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-66.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed No60c340$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No15c329.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3114239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes17c301.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+148.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No14c294.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.621637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No59c284$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.493762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed No59c265.58$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.692142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab49…a28ebacked Yes32c261.84$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+214.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes34c248.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6226238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No55c242.66$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.443438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No58c236.98$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.034630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc77…67c3backed No12c235.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbe3…e366backed No77c222.5$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.842450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29e6…b3f2backed No77c220.68$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf0…e95cbacked No79c211.38$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f02…3256backed No62c208.84$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No63c206.4$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5210651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd876…b938backed No57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1268232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1247247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d38…d383backed No61c197.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked No27c196.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…66a2backed Yes40c193.47$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.62944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3d…ff92backed No71c175.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.641442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe43…8c72backed No21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7312…9356backed No74c149.49$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.85955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed No69c145.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ea…ffe5backed No73c137.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.