Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1350305c0ee65b954c4a68d3a78d6229013c1b04bd3d0094b7e16c1c5f67cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,307$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 6c | 1,300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 5c | 1,285$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 15c | 1,227$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 60c | 1,123$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.78 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 15c | 759.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 3c | 597.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 576$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 2c | 474.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…ce71backed No | 9c | 403.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 16c | 400.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 306.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 74c | 282.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 39c | 220.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 37c | 172$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +111%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…866bbacked No | 28c | 158.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 30c | 125.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 74c | 125$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 16c | 119.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 76c | 99.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 71c | 98.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed No | 31c | 63.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…6f7abacked No | 18c | 59.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…029ebacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 68c | 20.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.