TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes1c11,606$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.451225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c5,957$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.0218216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b2…ef09backed Yes18c5,440$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x776b…fb79backed Yes8c3,416$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,581$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.331,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes38c2,512$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.513918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No69c2,375$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.015527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes20c2,300$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4577317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes38c2,175$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.045527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes24c2,150$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes10c2,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.33839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8005…8de3backed Yes38c1,865$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes2c1,750$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No69c1,729$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.561241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…24debacked No66c1,523$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.91442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No63c1,456$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.93875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes35c1,400$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48913343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c1,331$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.7857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No63c1,326$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes15c1,219$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes6c1,200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+168.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes17c1,200$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.998921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e79…ecf8backed Yes18c1,116$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c1,098$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c1,058$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.121,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes37c999.98$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes33c999.08$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.711546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes7c937.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.482611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed Yes21c931.01$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No65c900$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3183748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ad2…54bdbacked Yes34c885.1$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes37c878.32$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.244955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes30c869.58$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6724736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c867.24$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5413268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No58c862.97$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.221330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ca…4a6cbacked Yes16c804.21$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked No58c779$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes11c773.15$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.873826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c749.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6616616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x012e…5f25backed Yes8c744.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes38c679.06$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.388838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No61c678.88$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.524630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc37…fa31backed No69c620.85$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes20c611.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.626031.7%19 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed Yes35c606$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5247…8ae5backed Yes28c561.34$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Yes28c532.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b09…4d75backed No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1902100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes34c496.5$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.291010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-86.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No68c493.39$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9511039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9e…716ebacked No65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.54366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c8…bc64backed No65c457.97$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d46…feefbacked No69c437.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20c1…8561backed Yes15c429.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked Yes8c406$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No66c390$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.986914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa7…fb5dbacked Yes56c360.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No57c324.36$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.473145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No62c315.42$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.245072%36 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31d0…7f0fbacked No62c309$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…b9e3backed No63c308$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No61c304.98$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.852365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes14c303.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes36c301.04$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.371330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked No65c299.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes25c292.64$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes31c285.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.611435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No70c272.53$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8518036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes39c270$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-65.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4747…492dbacked Yes53c263.92$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed No65c263.43$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaec4…fa49backed Yes17c262.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes38c261.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d6…be1fbacked No55c256$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+117.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9514834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes34c245.28$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.113721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ad…80f6backed Yes10c240$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Yes42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes37c224.35$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.728048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34f5…bd92backed Yes24c221.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb860…6d05backed Yes39c187.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes11c181.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes41c179$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.134940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes7c175.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.544555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f19…3aedbacked No70c172.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.192853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes38c171.52$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes40c171.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+227.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No78c167.37$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.734161%25 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x951d…f79fbacked Yes15c164.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.93875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes31c162.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…d7b8backed No63c157.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+98%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f90…5b7ebacked Yes9c157.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc72f…dc56backed No57c157.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8627…1630backed Yes41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…034abacked No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.