Venezuela · resolved market
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28c4adf797dd5b9c7bf353e858e3ca9918512e0a84233d165a59011f43d7084d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,987$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,638$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…2f47backed Yes | 3c | 1,525$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 20c | 922.72$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…0603backed Yes | 7c | 919.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 885.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 857.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 20c | 766$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 24c | 677$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 607.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Yes | 20c | 508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…2b61backed Yes | 20c | 506.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195a…9442backed Yes | 20c | 475.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 465.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 76c | 465$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 75c | 320$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…68fabacked Yes | 5c | 319.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 79c | 294.86$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…149bbacked Yes | 9c | 291.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 78c | 287.63$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 6c | 285.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 257.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607b…4012backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…c855backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…5198backed Yes | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 236.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…5882backed Yes | 7c | 231.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 76c | 212$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 5c | 206.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde3…4f66backed Yes | 8c | 204.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 193.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 172.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 8cpaid | +128%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 8c | 158.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…e85dbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…18debacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 80c | 122.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…ede7backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 79c | 108.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…79fcbacked Yes | 18c | 107.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…1c47backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1286…968dbacked Yes | 21c | 93.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 91.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…5fddbacked Yes | 22c | 89.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…60c6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 78c | 82.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 18c | 70.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…01b6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 55.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 75c | 54.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee8…678cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 43.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85a…be39backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…5224backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…299abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…b03dbacked No | 71c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…37aebacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.