Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ea345fe68db25cff6a3a15ff8576eb28f5eedaca03bb7551309d9bba0c275e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 4c | 3,426$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 2,699$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,646$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…2394backed Yes | 6c | 2,511$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,002$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…6faebacked Yes | 9c | 1,414$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…fa8cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,247$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,079$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 2c | 1,046$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…368cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,038$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 4c | 1,016$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 861.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 839.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…a83abacked Yes | 18c | 784.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 780.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 759.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 5c | 673.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…13c6backed Yes | 17c | 627.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f13…3211backed Yes | 8c | 619.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 8c | 619.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…6457backed Yes | 10c | 566.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 4c | 531.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 489.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 433.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…919ebacked Yes | 6c | 424.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…ade9backed Yes | 22c | 417.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 412.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…85b0backed Yes | 8c | 407.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…334dbacked Yes | 6c | 389.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 388.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 378.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked Yes | 5c | 377.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…b5bcbacked Yes | 6c | 374.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…4899backed Yes | 5c | 372.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…5b36backed Yes | 8c | 364.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…0d48backed Yes | 6c | 339.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4de…2f75backed Yes | 7c | 326.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…d231backed Yes | 8c | 315.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…013bbacked Yes | 7c | 299.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ad…8b58backed Yes | 8c | 297.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…2ad0backed Yes | 10c | 289.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 13c | 288.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…28b8backed Yes | 14c | 282$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…72fabacked Yes | 6c | 257.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…ae1fbacked Yes | 13c | 243$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…03fcbacked Yes | 17c | 241.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…91b6backed Yes | 18c | 237.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…e550backed Yes | 17c | 233.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 229.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf84…8e10backed Yes | 9c | 223.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Yes | 18c | 201.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…8209backed Yes | 8c | 188$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes | 21c | 163.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc098…7ae7backed Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…f522backed Yes | 15c | 148.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 7c | 146.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…2302backed Yes | 15c | 133.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…ca9ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…2aa9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…8140backed Yes | 20c | 75.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…fd35backed Yes | 17c | 67.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc0…34a2backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…797ebacked No | 78c | 39.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.